Dr J Rould
Full-Time Tech Investor, Quantum/Cybersecurity, Philosophy Background
Prime Medicine will trade on hype and fumes until it shows positive clinical data, likely not before sometime in 2027, because it is still a Phase 1 company. Its technology reads as almost too good to be true, but genomics has many promising players and it is hard to know now who will win, which favors a broad genomics ETF over a single name. x.comÂ
Prime Medicine's management has made a mess of the business case. Deprioritizing the CGD program, along with a CEO change and layoffs, was net negative: a proof point paired with a program cut hurt the platform's credibility, made investors question management's vision and killed the investment narrative. That raised the cost of capital, since new equity at $3 is far more dilutive. The editing tech is brilliant, but with founder Liu staying at the university, the business is unconvincing. x.com … Show more
Biotech's usual Q4 strength ahead of JPM season makes aggressive rallies in smaller names highly likely. ARKG is starting to break out, and PDS Biotechnology is showing multiple buy signals. If ARKG keeps running as expected, Nautilus Biotechnology, PDS Biotechnology and Quantum-Si could reasonably rally toward about $10 soon; broken chart structures would invalidate that view. x.com x.comÂ
AI labs will need advanced gene editing to address many of the diseases they pursue, making Prime Medicine's strategic importance hard to overstate as they expand into biology. Cystic fibrosis is a sizable indication; demonstrating the technique works there could open larger indications. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Prime Medicine and Beam Therapeutics show yellow flags, if not red, in their shared founder and IP dispute, even though prime editing is one of this century's most critical technologies. The same academic scientist helped found both yet stayed at his university rather than run either full time. Now the two companies are in arbitration over IP and contractual rights. Something may be missing here, and hopefully is, but these are not green flags. x.comÂ
AI drug-discovery picks and shovels such as Ginkgo Bioworks, 10x Genomics, Twist Bioscience and Grail are priced on a fantasy, and secondary offerings are coming. The bet that AI will solve cancers and rare diseases within months ignores how drug discovery, regulation and trial enrollment actually work. Unlike the semiconductor comparison, these businesses have not inflected, mostly burn cash, trade at 20-30x sales and need equity to fund themselves. Buyers here become their liquidity. x.com … Show more
Prime Medicine looks unusually inexpensive relative to its platform at a roughly $570 million market cap. Bristol Myers Squibb's deal includes over $3.5 billion of potential milestones, six times that value, plus royalties, and gives Prime a route into cancer and immunology; their value depends on success, timing and costs. Prime editing can make all 12 single-letter DNA substitutions and insert or delete DNA, and its first CGD patients reached 69% and 83% functional neutrophils by day 30. x.comÂ
Genomics is likely one of the most important long-term investment themes of the next decade, as AI speeds how life's information is read, understood and edited. Picks: Illumina in sequencing; Tempus AI for AI with genomic data; CRISPR Therapeutics and Beam in gene editing; uniQure (high risk, high payoff) and BioMarin (more certain) in gene therapy; Natera and Guardant Health in diagnostics; Twist Bioscience and Thermo Fisher in tools; Vertex and Alnylam in therapeutics. x.comÂ
Recursion Pharmaceuticals could see huge catalysts from positive phase I and II news due in the second half of this year. Its AI drug-discovery platform has five clinical trials in progress, and big pharma and biopharma are spending billions on AI-driven platforms. Market research firms project 38-45% annual growth for AI genomics through the early 2030s. The stock found support around $3 and has some momentum. x.comÂ
Prime Medicine's stock should start to move once more pipeline data comes in, building on amazing technology and early results in a rare immune disease showing quick fixes. More programs are coming, and its cash runway lasts until 2027. x.comÂ
Biotech is the next AI trade, as AI turns drug discovery from a 10-year guessing game into a data problem while investors still treat the sector like a casino. Tempus AI uses a large clinical dataset for AI diagnostics; Recursion maps over a trillion cells with Genentech and Sanofi as partners; CRISPR Therapeutics has catalysts before end-2026; Absci designs antibodies with generative AI and starts Phase 2; Schrödinger sells physics-plus-AI design software and posted a surprise profit. x.com … Show more
