Dr J Rould
Full-Time Tech Investor, Quantum/Cybersecurity, Philosophy Background
Red Robin's turnaround is unproven, with the stock back at IPO prices from over 20 years ago after its growth story collapsed. Reports cite bad executive decisions and a refusal to correct course, though it now shows signs of a turnaround. Technically, its prior long-term support line could flip to resistance; the bigger signal is whether margins and foot traffic, both in collapse, can re-accelerate. x.comÂ
Restaurants are struggling, making Red Robin unattractive to own. Former restaurant ownership and complaints from restaurant-owner friends underpin the short view. x.comÂ
Wendy's prolonged sales weakness and rising food and labor costs threaten franchise survival, leaving the company near bankruptcy. Restaurant tracker John Gordon says it ranked in the bottom five of roughly 60 brands week after week for at least a year; promotions have not delivered a meaningful turnaround, and more closures are likely. Several franchisees say they are trying to sell to avoid bankruptcy; repeated lunch checks found 0-1 cars in the drive-through. x.com x.comÂ
Red Robin delivered another strong quarter, and with amazing leadership it should be worth more than Wendy's by 2027. x.comÂ
Wendy's fundamentals are falling apart, so the stock was never cheap even well off its highs. It has posted six straight quarters of falling same-store sales as smaller portions and higher prices erased the value proposition that defined the brand. Meritage Hospitality, the franchisee running 314 of its restaurants, just filed for Chapter 11 after its store-level earnings fell 48% last year. x.comÂ
McDonald's faces GLP-1 drugs, runaway inflation, shifting Gen Z preferences and terrible management execution, leaving it in its worst drawdown in 20 years outside of COVID. x.comÂ
BJ's Restaurants is overvalued because poor returns on new restaurants keep it from growing, yet the market grants it a higher multiple than Microsoft and 1.5x that of many SaaS companies. The relative valuation is appalling. x.comÂ
Sweetgreen is just not a great concept, in a restaurant category that has been mauled, and its operating model doesn't add up. There are far easier ways to make money in restaurants and consumer; reaching for quality is safer and probably offers the same upside. It could still work. x.comÂ
Restaurant Brands International has been getting more attractive, with big operational changes underway behind the scenes. x.comÂ
