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VanquishTrader

Options Prop Trading Firm

28 Oct, 23:17Latest

Alphabet's Cloud profits offset some Search risk, but AI infrastructure may consume the gains. Search grew 12% versus 17% in Q2 despite five-year-high query growth; currency and comparisons also mattered. Cloud profit reached $11.1B, but TPU sales may alter margins. Operating cash lagged capex and shares were issued. The stock looks interesting, not obviously cheap; over two to four reports, Search monetization and Cloud margins must hold and cash flow must outpace capex without more dilution. x.com

GOOGL

6 Aug, 21:51

Alphabet's spending is not bearish by itself, but rising financing needs make the cost of capital a much bigger part of its AI buildout. It is reportedly raising up to $25B in a 10-part bond sale weeks after lifting 2026 capex guidance to $195-$205B, pushing 2026 capital raises above $155B as it heads for its first negative free-cash-flow quarter as a public company. Its 40-year debt funds long-lived data centers and power alongside AI hardware that may need replacing every three to six years. x.com

GOOGL

Teng Yan

Founder of Tessara, AI Buildout & Supply-Chain Research

22h ago

GOOGL

Alphabet's AI growth is harder to turn into cash because capacity shortages require rented compute while TPU system sales tie up inventory before delivery. Cloud grew 103%, with system sales contributing meaningfully; management expects rented compute to pressure Q4 Cloud margins. Q3 free cash flow was -$9.1B, partly reflecting inventory build and a one-off EU fine, while AI Mode monetizes less effectively than traditional Search. The dip is probably a buy with a reasonable timeframe. x.com … Show more

Cole

Momentum Stock & Options Trading, Public Trading Journal

22h ago

GOOGL

Alphabet's AI spending is visibly turning into revenue, more than many other names can say today. Cloud is nearly a quarter of revenue, growing 103% at a 36% operating margin with a $561B backlog; total revenue rose 25%, operating income 30%, and margins are expanding. Free cash flow has been negative for two quarters, capex keeps climbing into 2027, and AI leaves search monetization uncertain. x.com

Ophir Gottlieb

CEO of CMLviz, Former Options Market Maker

22h ago

GOOGL

Alphabet's AI Mode monetizes less effectively than traditional Search, potentially threatening its Search business. AI drove the fastest Search query growth in five years, yet Search revenue growth slowed to 12%; defending Search makes even greater AI investment necessary, not optional. Google Cloud grew 103% year over year to a $123 billion annual run rate. The report could not have been better for the AI infrastructure trade, but its risks are bearish for Alphabet's stock. x.com

TechStockFundamentals

Technology Investor with ~25 Years of Experience, Former Hedge Fund Manager for 10 Years

28 Oct

GOOGL

Alphabet's AI-mode ads could move the needle, giving the stock a tentative upside bias despite search uncertainty. Search supplies $39b of $41b in quarterly segment profit, but its revenue growth slowed to 12% and will likely slow to 10% in Q4. Queries remain healthy; Alphabet says AI queries are mostly additive. Cloud revenue grew 96% year over year. At 18x a slightly above-consensus 2027 GAAP EPS estimate for over 30% operating profit growth, the stock remains a tough call. x.com x.com x.com

LongGameEquity

Long-Term Investor, AI & Software

21h ago

GOOG

Alphabet's core Search growth is slowing while AI spending surges, making the selloff look deserved despite fast Cloud growth. Search growth fell from 19% to 17% to 12% over three quarters; Search now represents just under half of revenue. The stock could fall to $250, though Amazon is the preferred buy. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com

Masa’s Son

Non-Consensus Long/Short Technology Investor

28 Oct

GOOGL

Alphabet's Q3 search miss strengthens the concern that AI is not great for search. FinancialJuice reports Search & Other revenue of $63.35bn versus $64.85bn expected and capex of $51.36bn versus $55.78bn expected. Anthropic's third quarter also looks less than excellent on this read-through. x.com

Gregory Bent

CFA, Equity Analyst, US & Canadian Markets, 30+ Years of Experience

23h ago

GOOG

Alphabet's Q3 cash-flow deficit reflects front-loaded AI infrastructure spending, a $5.2B fine payment and a TPU inventory build, not a broken cash engine. With capex at $51.4B, Google Cloud revenue doubled to $30.7B (+103%), operating profit tripled to $11.1B and backlog hit $561B. Search queries remain at all-time highs as users shift to Gemini formats. The spending should monetize over 4–8 quarters; return on invested capital matters more than next quarter's expectations. x.com x.com

mon

Independent Analyst, High-Risk Small-Cap & Growth Investing

22h ago

GOOGL

Alphabet's fast-growing Cloud business could offset pressure on Search as AI agents bypass ads and links. Cloud is already half Search's size, grew 103% versus Search's 12%, and is on track to overtake it; that makes the sell-off a great opportunity. Alphabet also owns SpaceX shares worth about $80 billion. x.com

Rand Group

Crypto Trader & Investor, Building RR2 Capital, Early-Stage Investing

29 Oct

GOOGL

AI answers cost Alphabet more to serve than traditional search results, adding a bigger bill to the risk of fewer ad clicks. Higher prices per click could offset some lost clicks, but growing capex has pushed free cash flow negative; the 2027 spending concern is not going away. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com

Jordan

Long-Term Stock Investor, Compounding & Portfolio Construction

28 Oct

GOOG

Alphabet offers attractive risk/reward because its earlier equity raise suppressed the shares despite strong growth. The $80B-plus raise should suffice for now; another next year is uncertain. Search grew 17% in the prior results, while cloud revenue more than doubled in the latest. Investment losses, not the business, hit EPS; weaker free cash flow puts investors off. A search slowdown would be a warning flag, though Gemini and other businesses could soften the blow. x.com x.com x.com x.com … Show more

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