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Porsche SE offers the best risk/reward to get long in five years as Volkswagen pursues what it calls its biggest business transformation in 87 years, reportedly cutting another 50,000 jobs for 100,000 in total while slimming its lineup. @The_Analyst_Lab counters that the 50,000 is only a target from the plan's analysis, not agreed cuts. Still, Volkswagen has the balance sheet to pull it off, and supervisory board approval was a big hurdle to clear. x.com x.com
Porsche SE is misunderstood because almost no one understands what the holding company owns anymore. Critics still focus on its company-level debt, which is a drop in the bucket. @laithcapital counters that Porsche's pricing power is less evident, with a shift toward SUVs and middle luxury, weakness in China and a costly EV focus. x.com x.com x.com
Volkswagen's guidance cut does not change its underlying earnings power. The reduced full-year operating return forecast, now up to 1% from 4-5.5%, reflects non-cash items and one-time restructuring costs; without them the operating margin is the same 4% as expected. x.com
Porsche AG is a great brand but a bad stock, hit at once by EV transition pain, a collapse in China and a valuation reset from its hyped 2022 IPO. EV demand is stalling, leaving Porsche caught between ICE buyers and Tesla-leaning EV buyers, while its China sales are down over 30% amid weak demand and BYD and NIO competition. Shares fell 68% from €140 to €44.86 in under three years and may take years to recover, or never regain €140, because that price assumed a future that isn't coming. x.com
NXP's Volkswagen platform win could extend earnings growth beyond the auto-order recovery by putting one control-chip family into more vehicle models. Q2 adjusted operating profit rose 17% on 10% sequential revenue growth; Q3 guidance implies roughly $154M more adjusted operating profit on $254M more sales. The VW–Rivian architecture's first vehicle is planned for 2027; pricing, production volumes and chips per vehicle will determine the contribution. x.com
Volkswagen evidently cannot be restructured, and the supervisory board's refusal to back CEO Oliver Blume's turnaround plan is an admission of failure. Per the quoted report, labor representatives and the state of Lower Saxony resisted especially on job cuts and group restructuring, so management will push the overhaul in stages, with the next board meeting in September. This is the point to pull the ripcord on the shares at the latest, and the management board should arguably resign together. … Show more
Rivian is underweight with a $9 December 2026 target because its $16.50 price assumes the R2 ramp, positive gross margins and Volkswagen money all arrive on time. Its 62,000–67,000 delivery guidance needs H2 quarterly deliveries to nearly double during the R2 launch. $6.1B of cash plus $2B from Volkswagen gives runway, but year-end cash hinges on execution; missing positive gross margins, guided for end-2026, by a quarter means dilution, by two a restructuring. Volkswagen limits the downside. … Show more
