MidCurveCapital
Equity Investor, Biotech & Software Focus
OpenAI's open-source Codex Security CLI looks complementary to GitLab rather than a threat, and the market has moved past punishing GitLab on such news. Six months ago, a release that lets users scan repositories, verify fixes and add security checks to CI/CD would have sent the stock down 10%. x.com
GitLab, still perceived as an AI loser, will be more critical than ever in the world software development is moving toward. Addy Osmani's AI Engineer talk, Own the outer loop, is cited as the case for that shift.
GitLab's AI DevSecOps platform and Duo agents are monetizing faster than Wall Street expects, supporting a $40 price target. x.com
Enterprises' need for source control, CI, security and governance at agent scale probably makes Anthropic's Scion more of an opportunity than a threat for GitLab. Scion shows what starts to break when agents generate code at this scale, a problem GitLab is already working to solve; enterprises need not build their own Scion or replace existing workflows. Scion itself is not inherently bullish for GitLab, and OpenAI, Meta or Anthropic selling that full stack broadly would pose a competitive risk. … Show more
Elevated AI risk makes GitLab a stock not worth being long at $60, despite a personal fair-value estimate at that level. A post by choblin29 reports that Anthropic replaced Git with its own version-control system and built Scion for code review. x.com x.com
GitLab is monetizing AI, the big story behind a strong triple beat that sent shares up 25% premarket. Revenue grew 22% and guidance came in better than feared. Flex ARR grew by triple digits as GitLab shifts toward consumption-based AI revenue, and guidance assumes no material Flex contribution, leaving upside if adoption keeps accelerating. x.com
GitLab is badly undervalued, with the market ignoring over $1B of ARR, $1.26B of cash and almost no debt at a $3.77B market cap and a $21–22 share price. A market-cap-over-DCF model gives a P50 value of $46.83 even before last night's AWS deal, with a path to $74.50 in 3–5 years. The biggest bear point is that nothing in Silicon Valley would be disrupted if GitLab stopped existing tomorrow because of AI. x.com x.com
GitLab faces an existential crisis as the AI "SaaSapocalypse" arrives, yet it still trades at 4.7x sales despite decelerating growth and 10+ analyst downgrades in 2026. x.com
GitLab should see some GitHub-to-GitLab migration and excitement, but Duo Agent is unlikely to contribute meaningfully until next quarter, if not later. A post-earnings drop back to where the stock started, as @cryptopunk2020 predicts, would be welcome as a chance at more cheap shares. x.com
GitLab looks mispriced against the data value implied by xAI's deal for an option to buy Cursor at $60 billion. At about $2.5 billion of enterprise value, GitLab's code data would be worth only around 5% of Cursor's, which is hard to believe; even a weak plan to monetize that data should spark a monster move, and if management won't, another company could acquire GitLab to exploit it. One caveat: a large share of GitLab is self-managed, so that portion cannot be trained on. x.com
GitLab is not going to become the new GitHub. As @endingwithali notes, GitLab's CEO previously ran New Relic, which was sold to private equity rather than becoming the alternative customers sought when they were annoyed at Datadog's prices. x.com
GitLab could pop 20% if its guidance proves sandbagged and it beats and raises. Last quarter's growth was 23%, while guidance for the coming quarter is 15-16%, so a beat looks achievable. Guidance matters most, and it has a good chance of moving up as more code is being produced. x.com x.com
