Dr J Rould
Full-Time Tech Investor, Quantum/Cybersecurity, Philosophy Background
Enhabit is in a disastrous financial situation, with management itself warning of substantial doubt about continuing as a going concern. It has $36M of pro forma liquidity while burning more than $20M a quarter, under six months of runway. That sets up a negative loop: a lower market cap makes raising capital harder, lowering confidence and the market cap further, which explains the downward spiral. The likely path is an inevitable capital raise. x.comÂ
Enhabit looks very expensive at roughly 350x sales, and far more if TradingView's $1B market cap is right, though this comes without knowledge of the company or its future revenue. A post the author replies to counters that the brand is known by about 70% of people nationwide at a $340M market cap. x.com x.comÂ
Innventure faces massive dilution and broken trust. After the guidance suspension, the stock fell 50% to 28 cents, valuing the parent at $24M versus Accelsius's $665M January raise. A new $60M at-the-market offering means about 214M new shares against roughly 85M outstanding, and the prospectus carries a going-concern warning; the Yorkville facility raised just $1.69M in two months. With Otsworth and current management still involved, trust is hard to rebuild; activism may be the only exit. … Show more
T1 Energy is a high-capex, low-margin business now borrowing its way to zero, shown by its $120 million private offering of 4.75% convertible senior notes due 2031. Earlier red flags were massively overleveraged debt, a shady founder, a lawsuit from one of Europe's largest utilities, FEOC credit eligibility it claims but has not officially secured, and a questionable plan to repay Chinese debt to qualify for US subsidies. x.com x.comÂ
ReTo Eco-Solutions' 27% jump looks like a dead-cat bounce after its $15M offering on September 17, and worth fading. It is a serial diluter with multiple reverse splits and a market cap of only $7.3M, and its 35.9M-share float with 0.05% short interest makes it easy to borrow with no squeeze risk. x.comÂ
Lucid is a capital-burning machine with no sign of turning around, and its latest update does nothing to ease bankruptcy concerns. Free cash flow is negative $2.9 billion so far this year, accumulated losses total $17.6 billion, and the burn keeps growing. Lucid cites organizational changes, leadership transitions and $1.4 billion of identified 2026 cash-flow improvements, which are long overdue. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Aspen Aerogels should be getting wrecked, because the market has not priced in the second-order effects of the explosion that closed its only manufacturing plant. Per @RFortunae, the roughly $50 million market cap loss may match the direct cost, but Aspen has a liquidity covenant and burns about $45 million a year, so it may need to raise capital, and GM and prospective customers could cancel contracts. Its product exists to prevent fires, yet its main factory apparently keeps catching fire. … Show more
