Micron is too risky to own long term because memory is one of the most cyclical parts of the AI trade. Its margins are hard to forecast, so memory, like neoclouds, deserves a low multiple until it proves it can run a sustainable business through cycles, despite immense upside. Micron belongs in the too-hard pile: worth swing trading at opportune times, not holding long term or in real size. x.com  x.com 

If Micron has only two years of decent forecasts, its limited visibility warrants a lower multiple, not a higher one. x.com 

Micron looks very cheap because the market underestimates how sustainable its earnings will be over the next few years. x.com 

Micron looks expensive on price-to-book at about 8x versus a historical average of about 2x, and relying on forward P/E for such a cyclical business can be dangerous. x.com 

Micron faces a severe crash risk from CXMT's current threat and apparent investor complacency after a euphoric high. If the Wall St Cheat Sheet fits, most of Micron's gains across 40 years, amassed in just one year, could be erased soon. Earlier, Elon Musk said Micron had been reasonable on future memory prices; memory stocks were not yet to be faded. x.com  x.com 

Micron's sold-out high-bandwidth memory through 2027+ and contracts already being signed for 2029-2030+ extend its earnings runway. At 5x forward earnings, it is cheaper than a year ago; its private Anthropic stake is about to be instantly rerated at Anthropic's IPO, and a new share buyback is expected to be announced Dec. 9. Micron could certainly gain 30% in three months. x.com  x.com 

Micron faces a 'gravity' setup that will be very hard to break without forecasts and earnings beating expectations by 100%. During the dotcom bubble, Micron hit its 0.618 Fibonacci level as the yield curve uninverted, just as it is doing now: the 10-year/3-month spread is +117 bps, the 30-year yield is nearing 6.0%, HYG has broken its 50-period moving average and LQD looks set to fall toward 2008 lows. x.com  x.com 

Micron is a cyclical, and cyclicals should never be bought at low P/Es and record earnings. x.com  x.com 

Micron can't meet customer demand, giving it rare visibility at a valuation of about 5x next year's earnings. CEO Sanjay Mehrotra said customers are extending agreements into 2031, which gives certainty of demand and lets Micron plan capacity investments with confidence. The stock is now about $1,000, and with potential EPS beats over the next few quarters its forward P/E could be around 5, unthinkable about six months ago. x.com  x.com 

Micron, SK hynix and SanDisk look absurdly cheap, but the market refuses to pay more for their earnings because no one knows what sales or margins look like five years out. Today's roughly 5x earnings could prove ridiculously cheap, yet those earnings could just as easily fall until 5x becomes 20x. That raises the question of whether owning them is investment or speculation. x.com  x.com