Finance Jack
Equity Research
These high-flying stocks look like they are running purely on hope, with valuations hard to justify. POET Technologies trades at 1,580x sales, D-Wave Quantum at 874x, Navitas Semiconductor at 169x and AXT at 96x, while Oklo carries an $11.4B market cap with no sales. x.comÂ
D-Wave Quantum's $5.2 billion valuation, or 325 times revenue, leaves substantial downside against just $1.50 per share in cash. The stock still has an estimated 80% downside. x.comÂ
D-Wave Quantum is hard to justify as a $7B company trading at 50x 2028 sales in a highly speculative industry, and its CFO is resigning. x.comÂ
Oklo is massively undervalued when Three Mile Island is restarting because of parabolic AI energy demand. The market will pay up front to own long-term positions, and retail investors are better equipped than ever. x.com x.comÂ
POET Technologies looks wildly overvalued at 1,308 times trailing sales. At the March 2000 dot-com peak, the richest notable surviving stocks traded far lower, with Cisco at 35x, Oracle at 27x and Microsoft at 26x. x.comÂ
Oklo builds and sells electricity, which makes it a utility to be valued on earnings, not a tech company. Per Joe Gamble, speaking at a March investor summit, utilities average about 20x profit, yet Oklo sat at a $9 billion valuation with no revenue and no earnings, while management sold shares as fast as it could print them. x.comÂ
Quantum computing is a race whose winners get pricing power over the hardest problems; Google's CEO says quantum is where AI was five years ago. IonQ leads with Q2 revenue of $80.1 million, up 287%. D-Wave alone is in commercial production; Rigetti grew revenue 173%. IBM targets fault tolerance in 2029, Alphabet's Willow began the cycle, Xanadu is photonic, Infleqtion has federal backing, Quantum Computing Inc. is speculative, Arqit sells post-quantum security; an ETF holds the field. x.com … Show more
POET Technologies has little upside left for the risk after rising 85% in three trading days. It has a real $5.6M production order, a 1.6T optical receiver with Semtech ramping this year and $313M in cash. But even at 12x forward sales, like Applied Optoelectronics, on $111M of expected FY27 revenue, its value roughly equals today's $1.6B market cap, and 15x gives only about $2B. Upside makes sense only at 30x or more, which is possible, as Sivers shows. x.com x.com x.comÂ
IonQ, Rigetti Computing and D-Wave Quantum have no business model, so their cash flows can't be predicted. They are awful companies whose appeal rests on speculation, and that should die out when the market turns. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Oklo stands out as the most egregious of Sam Altman's many questionable ventures. A company with no products or revenue, run out of a strip mall, somehow reached a $25 billion market cap. @CCM_Brett calls Altman a walking red flag. x.comÂ
IonQ, D-Wave and Rigetti look like traps after spiking on US government equity stakes. The $2B attached to nine quantum companies is roughly $100M each, a rounding error that doesn't change whether the businesses work. D-Wave's last quarter brought in $2.86M of revenue and Rigetti $4.4M, about 600x revenue. Much of the pop was a short squeeze, not revaluation, and the group later fell 7-9% on no news. Unlike Intel, which the government bought cheap, these are bought on a story. x.comÂ
