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Grab's CEO buying about $30 million of stock signals management sees the gap between a falling share price and improving execution. Anthony Tan's first open-market purchase since the IPO came below the prior 52-week low, with COO Alex Hungate also buying. Grab trades near a $7 billion enterprise value against guided $4.2 billion revenue and $720-740 million of adjusted EBITDA, up 44-48%. It is no perfect bottom signal, given noisy GAAP profit and Southeast Asian macro pressure. x.comÂ
Grab is an underrated growth story because it is becoming a full Southeast Asian ecosystem, where each added service makes the platform more valuable to consumers and merchants. Profitability is showing up, with Q4 2025 revenue up 19% and adjusted EBITDA up 54%, its first full-year net profit, and $290M of adjusted free cash flow. Guidance for 20-22% revenue growth and 40-44% EBITDA growth in 2026 signals operating leverage. The open question is whether that scale turns into real free cash flow. … Show more
Grab has about 2x potential through FY29/FY30 but not much more: solid, though less exciting than other names. Revenue of about $8B in FY29 at 19% net margins would give $1.52B of net income, or $0.37 EPS on 4.1B shares. About 20x is fair, against Uber at roughly 18x, given its financial-services potential and Southeast Asia risk, implying $7.40, a 130% gain. A recovery play like Snap may have more upside, with more risk. x.comÂ
Grab is building an ecosystem around Southeast Asian consumers' everyday needs, so each customer grows more valuable as they use more services. Q2 monthly transacting users rose 17% to 53.9M, revenue rose 22% to $997M and adjusted EBITDA rose 54% to $168M, while the loan book nearly tripled to $2.3B. The share price has been flat for years despite this. If users, engagement and financial services keep growing, the next 5-10 years could be extraordinary; competition is the main risk. x.comÂ
Grab is cheap against its cash earnings at 23x next year's, while software companies usually get 30x. Fair value sits at $3.93-5.00, or 30x next year's cash earnings give or take 12%, versus $3.65 now, with a PEG of 0.90. It turns expensive above $6.20, with a pullback level at $2.50. This read rests on valuation levels from reported earnings and estimates only. x.comÂ
Upstart has no AI underwriting moat; it is simply winning fewer personal-loan customers in a higher-rate environment while spending heavily. Originations rose 61% to $3.4 billion on auto (+300%) and home (+250%) with personal loans flat, but it returned to a GAAP net loss as contribution margin fell to 50% from 55% and operating expenses rose 45% to about $316 million. If the 10-year stays above 4.4%, a 55x P/E faces brutal valuation gravity, though hitting the $294M EBITDA guide would help. … Show more
