GrowthTurtle
Data Science PhD & IEEE Fellow, Ex-Two Sigma
Corning looks expensive at 39x earnings versus about 18x for its industry. Fair value is about $68.84-$87.61, or 18x next year's $4.35 EPS give or take 12%, so the $168.18 price sits about 92% above fair. The view rests on valuation levels from reported earnings and estimates, not fundamental work. x.comÂ
Corning keeps landing hyperscaler deals because AI data center fiber cannot be built out at this pace without it. Amazon just signed a multibillion-dollar agreement with Corning for optical fiber, cable and connectivity for its data centers, adding 1,000 jobs at Corning's North Carolina plants, per Dow Jones. That follows Corning's multiyear deal worth up to $6 billion with Meta. x.comÂ
Corning's rally looks less like a bubble than a scam at a forward P/E of 185, after the stock rose more than 600% from its December 2022 lows, as @Venu_7_ noted. Back in 2000, Corning collapsed from $110 to $1.10, a 99% loss within two years. x.com x.comÂ
Corning has an entrenched moat and remains a decent business, but holding off on buying it has been vindicated by the stock's recent drop. Unlike hot AI stocks whose position in five years is uncertain, it is not going anywhere. @EricJhonsa notes that at 32x 2027 EPS, with estimates likely too low, it is no longer crazy but not cheap, with smartphones and TVs his main concerns. x.com x.comÂ
Corning's optical connectivity business is set to grow after Nvidia pushed it to expand that manufacturing capacity tenfold, while funds flow back into beaten-down quality names. Per @Venu_7_, optical sales rose 32% to $2.07 billion, EPS is expected to more than triple by 2028, and AI deals with Nvidia, Meta and Amazon back it. The chart retested its 200-day average with an Adam-and-Eve bottom and is breaking a small downtrend line. x.comÂ
Corning's earnings were unexciting compared with its Chinese counterparts, and the stock could fall toward $130 if next week's investor day brings nothing big. Corning traditionally guides conservatively, so the event could still be a positive catalyst. @Gaetano2026 notes two new hyperscaler deals similar in size to Meta's and robust solar and optical demand, with some solar drag in Q2. x.com x.comÂ
Corning is the wrong instrument for glass substrates, the material set to replace organic substrates in AI chip packaging. Corning, AGC and Schott control about 90% of semiconductor-grade glass, and Corning works with TSMC with CHIPS Act funding. But substrates are a small part of a conglomerate whose growth comes mainly from AI optical fiber, trading at 90x earnings. The option value materializes in 2027-28; 2026 is for qualification, with yields at 75-85% and costs 2-3x organic. x.comÂ
Corning keeps climbing while Nvidia and Micron fall because its optical fiber, connecting GPUs within and between AI data centers, matters as much as the chips as clusters scale. An AI switch rack needs about 10 times the fiber density of a traditional cloud network, multiplying each chip generation. Hyperscalers are locking in supply years ahead: Meta up to $6 billion through 2030, a multibillion-dollar Amazon deal and an Nvidia partnership for three US plants. Optical sales grew 36% in Q1. … Show more
Corning's $2B at-the-market facility with Goldman Sachs is an option to sell stock, not a raise, so Friday's after-hours drop priced dilution that may never happen. The 8-K says sales may be limited, depend on market conditions and capital needs, and fund general corporate purposes with no named project. Notably, Corning arranged it while its new revenue stream has not started; its CEO said scale-up and photonics are not yet in results. The next 10-Q will show whether the share count moves. … Show more
Corning will reclaim its all-time highs and keep climbing because it is the undisputed global leader in optical fiber, with over 50% share in some of the most complex fiber products. Institutional investors are comfortable backing it, as with Ciena, since the company, founded in 1851, and CEO Wendell Weeks are well known. Generative AI interconnects, solar and extensive US manufacturing support a steady, unflashy grind higher through 2026. x.comÂ
Corning remains a long-term AI infrastructure winner even after Morgan Stanley's cooling note, as demand for fiber, optical materials and future glass substrates keeps growing. Per Morgan Stanley, the roughly 40% one-month rally outran fundamentals, driven by Fujikura's raised outlook, the GlassBridge fiber-to-chip platform, Nvidia long-haul fiber rumors and short covering, and high Q2 expectations could add volatility. GlassBridge gives Corning more room in next-generation optical links. x.comÂ
Corning could run to $200, and it is a move not to get in the way of. Nvidia is buying warrants for up to 15 million Corning shares at $180 each, and Corning paired that deal with a much more aggressive sales run-rate. x.com x.com x.comÂ
