Bank of America screens attractive at 12.3x on Wide Moat Intelligence, backed by an impressive dividend history. x.comÂ
Brad Thomas
Founder & Lead Analyst of Wide Moat Research
Bank of America's Q1 shows a bank making money from market chaos, undercutting the recession pricing on large-cap financials. Revenue of $30.27 billion beat estimates by $1.64 billion, net interest income of $15.75 billion topped the $15.37 billion estimate, and equities trading of $2.83 billion beat $2.51 billion as the bank captured volatility. FICC trading missed at $3.50 billion versus $3.78 billion, the one soft spot. x.com x.comÂ
U.S. Bancorp is cheap against its earnings at 11x, and 10x next year's, versus the 12x banks usually get. Fair value runs $61.28 to $77.99, or 12x next year's $5.80 EPS give or take 12%, above the $56.49 price. The call rests on valuation levels from reported earnings and estimates only, not fundamental work. x.comÂ
Bank of America's earnings miss extends beyond its one-time fine, so the selloff may not yet be fully priced. Investment-banking fees fell 11%; wait for fee income to stabilize before treating the drop as merely a fine scare. x.comÂ
Bank of America has more upside as a stock than BNY Mellon, trading at about 1.28x book value versus about 2.13x, though banks sit only partly within this circle of competence. x.comÂ
Independent Bank Corp. looks cheap against its earnings. The holding company for Rockland Trust trades at 14x trailing earnings and about 10x next year's, while banks usually get 12x. Fair value is $87.09 to $110.84, based on 12x next year's forecast $8.25 a share, give or take 12%, so the stock sits 9% below the low end of fair. It would be expensive above $89.28. The call leans on the forecast, which is 48% above trailing earnings, and is based on levels only, not fundamental work. x.comÂ
The big six US banks should report great Q2 results as the front line of a solid economy. Net interest income, fee growth, steady credit trends and capital levels all look supportive, and valuations remain cheap, leaving opportunities to add. x.comÂ
Bank stocks look buyable if systematic selling is reacting to a flatter yield curve: the front end that drives earnings has barely moved. JPMorgan and Citi card spending rose 10% and 13%, and Citi and Wells Fargo reported lower credit losses. Wells expects steady margins and improving interest income as loans grow and old fixed-rate assets roll into higher yields. Funds crowded into banks before results, limiting near-term buyers. x.comÂ
Truist Financial looks cheap against its earnings at 9x next year's estimate, versus the roughly 12x banks usually get. Applying 12x to next year's $4.99 EPS, give or take 12%, gives a fair value of $52.71-$67.08, leaving the $45.58 share price 14% below the low end. x.comÂ
Equity Bancshares looks cheap against its expected earnings at $47.54. It trades at 28x trailing earnings but about 9x next year's, versus a typical 12x for banks. At 12x next year's $5.47 EPS, give or take 12%, fair value runs $57.79 to $73.56, leaving the stock 18% below the low end. The case leans on the forecast, with forward earnings 222% above trailing, and rests on valuation levels rather than fundamental work. x.comÂ
Western Alliance looks cheap against its earnings, trading at 8x, or 7x next year's, versus the usual 12x for banks. At 12x next year's $11.15 EPS, give or take 12%, fair value is $117.74-$149.85, leaving the $74.07 price 37% below the low end. This is a valuation read off reported earnings and estimates only, with no fundamental work. x.comÂ