Masa’s Son
Non-Consensus Long/Short Technology Investor
ACM Research remains the smartest way to play China's memory makers CXMT and YMTC until their shares become available. China's equipment market is notoriously competitive, with Naura and AMEC as rivals, but the volume ramp should outweigh that as CXMT and YMTC look set to lead global DRAM and NAND within a few years. x.com x.com x.com
ACM Research's discount to the value of its China-listed unit means nothing if management never acts to close it. That unit trades at roughly 70-80x in China, which looks a bit pricey, so fair value probably lies somewhere in between. x.com
ACM Research should benefit as China's wafer fab equipment spending soars over the next couple of years across memory and leading-edge logic, more than offsetting lower mature-node spending. Its advanced packaging sales to non-Chinese clients are also growing well, and valuation looks reasonable after the recent pullback. x.com
ACM Research carries binary China risk: China is about 97% of its business, and authorities could stop it any day, forcing management to choose between San Jose and China. The CCP's threats toward other countries make that exposure uglier, whatever the company's $4B revenue ambition. x.com x.com x.com
ACM Research looks underpriced because its Chinese subsidiary alone has a backlog equal to about half the company's market cap. ACM Shanghai's backlog rose 88.2% to $2.5B, yet the stock barely reacted. x.com x.com
ACM Research is the best idea under $5B in market cap right now because China is going to keep pushing for localization. Ongoing dilution of its stake in its Shanghai subsidiary is a valid concern, but a necessary one. x.com x.com
ACM Research looked great as a value stock, but less so once it is clear it only makes wafer-cleaning equipment. @masayoshisson sees it, like nearly every AI stock, showing textbook complacency before complete capitulation, perhaps a few months after an Anthropic IPO. x.com
ACM Research stands out among holding-company NAV discounts because its subsidiary is growing independently and an H-share subsidiary listing is coming soon, making it one of the biggest discounts with a path to unlock and a candidate for more concentration. Similar discounts at Korean holding companies such as Iljin Holdings and Simmtech Holdings look less trustworthy for a NAV unlock given governance. This is still early research, not a formal conclusion. x.com
ACM Research's cleaning business must have driven its unexpectedly strong revenue, including a higher-margin cleaning product. Q3 '36 revenue beat estimates by 20%; last quarter's voiceover foreshadowed the product, but the full release has yet to show the mix. x.com x.com
Chinese semiconductor localization names like ACM Research and NAURA look like attractive opportunities for the second half of 2026 because CXMT's IPO should channel capital their way. Chinese sell-side analysts say CXMT's market cap right after listing could reach at least RMB 5 trillion, a frenzy Western investors underestimate, and most of the money it raises will likely flow into localization stocks. x.com
ACM Research is the cleanest second-derivative play on AI capex, and Kimi's rise makes it more bullish. A China that is frontier-competitive in models but cannot buy Nvidia's best chips must build its own compute, HBM and packaging, and that spend lands on ACM Shanghai, its STAR-listed operating company, where new orders rose 65% year over year in Q1. Its new Lingang flagship site has about $3B of annual output capacity as it ramps. x.com x.com x.com