Johan Ekroth
AI Infrastructure/Space/Defense Investor, Bottleneck Research
As AI makes memory the bottleneck, value is shifting from compute into the memory system, and HBM test and process control, which validates every HBM stack before delivery, sits outside the already-priced HBM narrative. HBM is growing from $35 billion in 2025 to an estimated $100 billion in 2028, with capacity sold out through 2026. But HBM makers and TSMC's CoWoS are now 2-3x return cases, not 10x; the opportunity lies in strong nodes with pricing room left. x.comÂ
Aehr Test Systems stands to benefit as testing takes a larger share of expanding semiconductor capex. Teradyne CEO Greg Smith says test's share of semiconductor capex rose from 6.4% in 2025 to 8.1% in the first eight months of 2026, with conditions favorable for prolonged ATE growth. Data-center reliability is pushing testing upstream from systems toward packages and wafers, where Aehr dominates wafer-level burn-in. Aehr lacks a dedicated CPU segment. x.comÂ
Growing chip-design complexity gives Onto Innovation's customers reason to keep investing beyond the current packaging recovery; Camtek offers more focused advanced-packaging exposure, with a technical edge in selected HBM applications. Onto is more closely tied to SK hynix's capital spending and also sells chip-fabrication metrology and packaging lithography. Industry information identifies Camtek as a preferred supplier for Samsung's HBM lines as Samsung invests to catch up. x.comÂ
Aehr remains a concentrated, expensive way to own wafer-level photonics burn-in: its 10-K says silicon-photonics customers primarily drove that revenue growth, and FY2027 guidance of $130m-$150m could nearly triple FY2026 sales, yet shares value it at about 20x the guide. Teradyne's acquired photonic-chip test business is not material to its much larger sales; Aehr's top five customers provided 70% of FY2026 revenue, so orders matter more than the headline CPO opportunity. x.comÂ
Aehr Test Systems stands to benefit because testing is a bottleneck to scaling AI chips. Testing demand is about to surge. Investors did not question its price-to-sales ratio at 120, despite the current P/S objection. x.com x.comÂ
Aehr's AI burn-in growth case is intact, but confidence in its competitive edge may need to come down as Teradyne moves into high-power burn-in. Teradyne's Titan HP, already in production, combines system-level test and burn-in and could absorb spending on dedicated tools, pressuring Sonoma orders and pricing. Aehr still won about $6M of follow-on Sonoma orders for a hyperscaler's second AI chip, with no sign FOX-XP is replaced. If the market expands enough, revenue can grow as share falls. … Show more
Aehr Test Systems is unattractive near $100, at 22.5x sales and 112x forward earnings, even though it will very likely go above $100. Other burn-in names such as AEM Holdings look better placed to play catch-up. x.comÂ
Tight memory supply keeps the AI memory supplier trade in bill-of-materials names if it persists. The investor aleabitoreddit reports an SK hynix shortage outlook through 2030 and an operating-margin result near 80%. HBM allocation and average-selling-price guidance are the next tests; Korea has already priced the earnings print, so the next move depends on who locks capacity. x.comÂ
FormFactor and Aehr Test Systems are favored because testing is the one non-optional part of the AI buildout. A single bad die ruins the whole package, so pricier chips mean more testing. FormFactor's probe cards touch every wafer; Q2 set records above a $1B run rate with gross margin over 50%, HBM4 is two-thirds of DRAM revenue and a new GPU program ships this half. Aehr guides fiscal 2027 revenue up 160-200% to $130-150M on a record backlog, plus a $22M AI follow-on order. x.comÂ
Aehr Test Systems is a case of narrative running ahead of the numbers. The bull case is reasonable: a young company with a strong position in silicon carbide burn-in, genuine hyperscaler interest in AI chip burn-in and room to expand into memory and logic. But the latest quarter showed revenue down 43% year over year, with no meaningful order conversion from the AI opportunities yet. Until revenue improves and orders come through more clearly, the story stays ahead of the fundamentals. x.comÂ
Chip testing may be the new memory: a thinly occupied, high-moat niche unknown to most investors. With far more chips everywhere, including GPUs and HBM, they cannot be installed without robust testing, which favors names such as Camtek, Aehr Test Systems, Teradyne and FormFactor. Higher valuations and slower earnings growth are no objection, since memory also looked that way many hundreds of percent ago. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
