Bloom Energy's valuation has come unhinged from fundamentals, drawing most of its premium from being a default high-beta AI trade. Nearly all its value rests on a backlog that deserves an execution-risk discount, including scandium sourcing: China owns about 70-90% of a 30-40-ton-a-year market, and Bloom is reportedly the largest consumer. The short report was opportunistic, scandium prices are muted, Bloom could likely pass on higher costs, and a full Chinese cutoff is far from the base case. x.comÂ