ThePortablePortfolio
Undercovered Value Investor, EM/AI Infrastructure/Crypto Rails
Nvidia is building the connective tissue for the next AI cycle through strategic investments, pricing the decade while the market prices the war. It put $2B into Nebius to secure European AI cloud capacity, backing a company targeting $7-9B in revenue by end-2026, and is deploying $7B into Intel and Marvell. Fiscal Q4 revenue reached $68.1B, up 70%. x.com x.comÂ
Nvidia benefits from AI capex that is structural, not cyclical, so recession fears and oil prices will not stop it. Hyperscaler capex crossed $1 trillion for 2026, up 36%, with Google, Amazon, Microsoft and Meta committing over $600 billion. Companies won't defer the infrastructure that decides their competitiveness, even in a recession. Nvidia's $2B investment in Coherent and Lumentum locks in optical supply, keeping its pipeline on track even if the broader chip market slows. x.comÂ
Anthropic's customer spending and compute buildout show AI monetizing at scale, a bullish read-through for Nvidia, Broadcom, Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, Nebius, CoreWeave and Hut 8. Its IPO filing reports H1 revenue up 14-fold to $16.3B, 11,900+ customers spending $100K+ annually and 1,900+ spending $1M+, alongside $9B in H1 infrastructure spending and about $430B in future compute commitments. x.comÂ
A rising value of compute per watt should benefit AI cloud, chip, connectivity and power suppliers. Elon Musk says that value will rise over time. Nebius has Microsoft and Meta deals; Marvell benefits from custom silicon demand; Credo connects GPUs; Vistra has long-term nuclear supply deals with Amazon and Meta; Nokia's Nvidia partnership could help it capture data-center networking growth. x.com x.comÂ
Nvidia's AI profits are real, but its compute demand depends heavily on fragile venture funding. Per Chamath, 1% of firms account for 90% of AI spending, and 72 cents of each dollar comes from unprofitable VC-backed firms. Venture money passes through startups to Nvidia and cloud suppliers; if the next raises fail, concentrated orders could contract together. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Nebius' software efficiency and a possible end to heavy AI financing support a re-rating. Per @DrTomsLens, its engineers got about 43% more video output from the same GPUs, cutting compute cost per second by 30%; newer hardware alone is not enough without capable software teams. Oracle expects to fund growth from free cash flow in FY2029, suggesting capital-heavy AI providers may eventually outgrow debt and dilution. Google Cloud reported 103% revenue growth amid strong AI infrastructure demand. … Show more
AI infrastructure bottlenecks could give eight stocks as much as 18x upside. Nvidia supplies frontier-model GPUs; Broadcom and Marvell supply custom silicon and networking; TSMC makes advanced chips; Micron supplies sold-out HBM; Vertiv provides power and cooling; Palantir monetizes enterprise AI; Alphabet spans TPUs, research, cloud and apps. The list tracks where AI infrastructure spending is flowing. x.com x.comÂ
Nvidia's ballooning future commitments relative to its revenue evoke Enron. Per Gary Marcus, citing Fortune and Nvidia's 10-Q, second-quarter revenue was $96 billion while future commitments total $366 billion, led by $279 billion of supply and capacity commitments, up from $119 billion a quarter earlier, plus cloud service agreements, data-center leases, equity investments and capex commitments. x.comÂ
Nebius's $40B-plus customer commitments and funding resources make its growth seriously underappreciated, despite financing risk. Q2 revenue grew 454% to $582M; Microsoft and Meta contracts total $29.4B, with another potential $15B from Meta. Against roughly $5.7B of Q2 capex, Nebius had about $8B cash, expects over $9B in 2026 customer prepayments and subsequently raised about $5.75B in convertible notes. It is one of the more compelling long-term AI infrastructure opportunities right now. … Show more
Nvidia gets paid for AI infrastructure while the companies funding AI buildouts bear the spending. Alongside Apple's edge hardware business, Nvidia's position as a supplier distinguishes it from the AI spenders that are losing to companies collecting the cash. x.comÂ
Nvidia could become the weakest link in AI's circular financing economy as it takes on more customer risk. It is turning to insurers to cover customers' GPU debt, and if insurers require Nvidia to keep backstopping deals, its liabilities will keep growing on top of $245B of supply chain commitments and prepayments as of last quarter. Such large counterparty conflicts are unwise. Amazon is also looking to move $8B of Nvidia Blackwell GPUs into an SPV to take on more debt for its AI buildout. … Show more
Nebius's integrated AI cloud offers a substantial long-term opportunity beyond simply controlling powered land as training and inference demand expands. It builds data centers and GPU clusters and runs networking, storage and customer software; Microsoft and Meta have multi-year commitments. The correction after a 10x rise is unfolding, but deeper price targets have not been reached; the next 6-12 months could offer a more attractive entry than near the highs. x.comÂ
