peony
Equity Investor & Researcher
Solstice Advanced Materials is a nice AI pick, and the market has been rewarding spun-off businesses since GE split into GE, GE HealthCare and GE Vernova. x.comÂ
Solstice Advanced Materials hides a mispriced uranium conversion monopoly. It owns Metropolis Works, the only US plant, with 20% of world UF6 supply. Old $20/kgU contracts roll off through 2028 versus $64 spot; almost all of that reset hits EBIT. Buried in specialty materials, it trades near 7.5x EBITDA versus 60x for Centrus and 70x for Cameco. Conversion alone could be worth $15B+ by 2028: $150 a share at 21x, $325-370 at peer multiples. Base case: $110-135 by end-2026, $155-190 by end-2027. … Show more
Chemours and Solstice Advanced Materials are the chemistry chokepoint for two-phase and immersion cooling, a Western duopoly whose fluids become a recurring consumable if those methods scale. Chemours' Opteon is one of two credible Western two-phase chemistries; it is cheap for real reasons, with PFAS liabilities, a 2024 accounting probe and high leverage, but the risk-reward is interesting. Solstice, the Honeywell spinoff, is the cleaner pure play, adding capacity with backlog over $2 billion. … Show more