Robinhood shows no signs of a near-term recovery. Per The Kobeissi Letter, its stock extended losses to 12% on the day after weaker-than-expected earnings. x.comÂ
Jimmy Investor
Former Equity Analyst
Robinhood's earnings miss leaves its revenue vulnerable to a market correction. Revenue could shrink further if the market corrects; a better entry may emerge over the next six months, but that is not assured. x.comÂ
Robinhood's growth looks more reliant on wallet share and the market backdrop because customer and active-user growth are weak. Revenue rose 12%, accounts 7% year over year, and net new funded accounts slowed one quarter after acquisition was re-prioritized; adjusted EPS growth unexpectedly turned negative. New customers grew at a mid-single-digit rate and monthly active users fell. MAU is volatile, but needs to improve next quarter. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Robinhood's Q3 report still looks solid despite misses against tough year-ago peak crypto and equity comps. Revenue missed slightly; the EPS miss looks tied to $67M of unrealized mark-to-market losses primarily related to its RVI fund, explaining the drawdown. Its new banking feature looks frictionless: send cash by text without recipients needing Robinhood accounts, a nice Zelle alternative versus its partner bank. Robinhood is cyclical, unlike compounding SoFi, though both are great. x.com … Show more
Robinhood's growth story may be slowing, because growth stocks need accelerating revenue and expanding margins to re-rate higher, and its latest earnings showed neither, which explains the sharp stock reaction. x.comÂ
Robinhood is a top short because retail investors are out of cash and will have to sell assets on the platform and stop speculating to cover basic living expenses. x.comÂ
Robinhood's higher revenue and EPS make it clearly stronger than SoFi on these earnings. SoFi's post-earnings rally is unlikely to hold; its shares are headed for single digits. x.com x.comÂ
Robinhood is a cyclical stock with no moat and no fair value or fair multiple, just a gamified trading platform whose shares move with market momentum. The only game with such names is to be in when momentum starts and out when it ends. For returns, it is better to wait out the cycle patiently before buying than to sit through the noise and pain. x.com x.comÂ
Robinhood posted an ugly double miss, and adding prediction markets and betting to the platform may eventually destroy its core user base. x.comÂ
Robinhood's growing non-crypto businesses make its trading-app valuation look too low. Gold subscribers rose 34% to 5.2 million, platform assets reached $396 billion, and 14 business lines now each generate over $100 million annually. Overweight with a $115 target, despite a weak report: deposits fell to $15.7 billion from $22 billion and net interest income dropped 9% as rates declined. x.com x.comÂ
Robinhood looks like a tough hold because it is the poster child for retail speculation, and overcrowded AI stocks have already been hit. Per Bloomberg, retail traders' best picks are on track for their worst month since 2022. x.comÂ