Masa’s Son
Non-Consensus Long/Short Technology Investor
HawkEye 360's upside is structurally capped as VCs start dumping 25 million shares into the open market, likely sending it below $10 soon. A DCF puts fair value nowhere near $18, and private-market marks matter little when VC cost bases are far lower. A quick sale would at least clear the overhang. x.com x.com
HawkEye 360 isn't attractive here, with fair value around $19, and should keep getting sold alongside SpaceX weakness ahead of lockup expiry. A lockup on 5x the float ends in November or earlier and VCs will likely sell; management holds options but no common stock; Q1 book-to-bill was 0.7x heading into Iran; and the valuation is still rich. Golden Dome and SHIELD offer a massive TAM, and its DoD reputation gives a 2-4 year head start, so Golden Dome awards could warrant a premium. x.com
SpaceX looks set to rise before its July 7 Nasdaq-100 inclusion, as passive index buying, a low float and options-driven gamma squeezes power the stock. CRSP, FTSE Russell and MSCI inclusions also force buying regardless of valuation; above $225 it could reach $300, about $4 trillion. After that, the stance turns bearish: as lockups expire and the float grows from about 5%, early investors' selling should overwhelm buying for a loss-making company, so long-term buyers could wait a year. x.com … Show more
Xanadu's stock was a textbook trap that has now sprung, falling about 60% premarket as insiders exit. An S-1 registered about 294M shares for resale by existing holders, which brings the company nothing and floods the float of a startup with $4.6M in annual revenue. A multi-billion-dollar valuation was unsustainable, and as a post-SPAC name its hype premium evaporated once lockups and conversions hit. Brilliant technology doesn't make a safe stock when insiders rush for the exits. x.com
