Jimmy Investor
Former Equity Analyst
Amphenol is the overlooked backbone behind nearly every secular trend, including data centers, space, robotics and EVs, and its story may just be getting started. In an era focused on logic chips and memory, few talk about connectors, cables and antennas, yet Amphenol is earning record margins and a 25% return on invested capital. x.comÂ
Amphenol is undervalued because the market still discounts it for its historical exposure to copper infrastructure. It trades at about 25x earnings while growing revenue 50% year over year in one of the most favorable cycles in its history, with exposure to data centers through both copper and optics, plus space and electrification. x.comÂ
Amphenol trades about 21% below fair value despite AI data-center demand driving record results, and its rugged interconnects also serve humanoid robots. FY2025 revenue rose 51.7% to $23.09B, with a record 25.4% GAAP operating margin and $4.38B of free cash flow. Communications Solutions nearly doubled to $12.06B on AI data centers. ROIC is 26.6%. At $121.72 it trades at 19.5x FY26 earnings and 24.9x EV/EBITDA, based on a blended DCF and multiples model. x.comÂ
Amphenol is quietly growing while benefiting from several secular themes at once through its connectors and interconnect systems for data centers, industrial automation, aerospace, EVs and mobile devices. Its multi-month base looks ready for a bigger move, and it was one of the few names showing a strong close today. x.comÂ
Amphenol is the boring robotics trade that works, because every humanoid joint and sensor module needs its connectors. It supplies that interconnect across auto, aerospace, data centers and now robotics, and bolt-on deals make it a compounder to size and forget, at 22x forward EPS. Three-month base is $135-145 if the subsector holds Top 10 and Q3 is in line; bull $155-170 if robotics and AI data center demand lifts the multiple; bear $108-115 if it drops out or capex slows. A multi-year hold. … Show more
Amphenol is an impressive business that still trades at reasonable value, with a roughly 3% free-cash-flow and earnings yield. It has outperformed the S&P 500 by 3x over the last five years. x.comÂ
Amphenol is attractive at this price as a boring compounder growing about 15-25% a year, though without further multiple expansion from here. x.comÂ
Prepaid fiber orders make 2027-28 demand a stronger signal than capex plans. Corning reports $639M in net customer deposits in the first nine months and expects data-center interconnect to beat its former $1B-by-2030 target on timing and size. That backs Lumen's intercity build, though its next allocation may require a bigger commitment. Tight Corning supply gives Amphenol room to gain share until capacity expands; strong demand alone has not lifted stocks across the chain. x.comÂ
Credo's near-total share of AI data-center cables and unchanged estimates make its lower multiple look like a fear-driven opportunity. Its stock went from 27x to 20x forward earnings while the supply chain building those systems guided 2027 revenue to double. Buyers this week will probably be very happy a year from now. x.comÂ
Credo's selloff on a raise reflects impatience, since its next growth leg is a fiscal 2028 story that begins in May 2027. It printed $479M, guided $525-535M and lifted full-year growth to more than 85%, yet sold off for a second straight print. CEO Bill Brennan called fiscal 2027 just a stepping stone for optics: OmniConnect, micro-LED cables and near-package optics turn on in fiscal 2028, when AECs step up to 1.6T. x.com x.comÂ
Broadcom's diverse networking exposure makes it one of the best positioned in the theme. The market has overlooked it year to date. Optical DSPs, Tomahawk and Jericho underpin the view; Tomahawk 6/7 ramps in 2027, and Tomahawk Ultra and optical DSPs should accelerate growth. New XPU customers and extended hyperscaler deals add to earnings upside and an eventual re-rating. Risks remain, and weak semiconductor flows warrant caution about calling a bottom. x.comÂ
Aptiv's spinoff of its low-margin wiring business left a higher-margin connectors, sensors and ADAS company the market has not repriced. At $61.88 it trades at about 10.5x the $5.90 midpoint of 2026 EPS guidance, versus 12-15x for auto suppliers and 18-25x for auto tech, with EBITDA margin guided up to 18.6%. Q1 bookings of $4.6B included about $900M non-auto, an early sign of robotics optionality. Risks: Q1 margin compression and negative free cash flow. Base case $85-90. x.comÂ
