Stocker-Man
Long-Term Growth Investor & Swing Trader, Public Investing Journal
T1 Energy is building a vertically integrated US solar manufacturing platform whose economics are already showing, a clearer setup than Eos Energy. Q2 2026 revenue rose 88% to $250.1M with a ~19.6% gross margin and $10.7M adjusted EBITDA, helped by $24.4M of tariff refunds. Once G2 adds 2.1 GW of cell capacity, management targets $375M-$450M annualized adjusted EBITDA versus a $1.46B market cap. Risks: G2 slipped to Q1 2027, costs about $510M and needs more financing. x.com x.comÂ
Eos Energy's business is moving the opposite way from its stock, which is down roughly 85% from its highs and still priced like a different company. Q2 revenue rose 351% YoY, backlog is $807M, the commercial pipeline is $24.6B, and manufacturing capacity is heading toward 4 GWh. Technically the stock still has work to do before a real pivot, but the long-term target remains $20+. x.comÂ
Eos Energy has moved from promise to industrial scale and could follow Fluence's path after breakeven toward a much higher valuation. Q1 revenue rose 445% to $57M, EPS of $0.12 beat a -$0.22 estimate, backlog reached $645M, and FY26 guidance rose to $350M versus $304M consensus. Cerberus' Frontier Power deal adds a $100M equity commitment and a 2 GWh reservation without dilution, and Line 2 testing shows it can build automated lines. Risks include DOE loan timing and grid interconnection. x.comÂ
T1 Energy is not worth buying: John Tinsman warns that unprofitable businesses such as T1 face dilution risk, high stock-based compensation, unlikely future promises and difficulty valuing them in a panic. x.com x.comÂ
T1 Energy's G2_Austin buildout is a sign of life, but financing its costly first phase remains a major risk. The company estimates more than $500 million in total capex for its 2.1 GW Phase 1. Backup financing is likely to bring significant dilution; without funding, bankruptcy and an asset sale or dilution toward zero and a reverse split are likely. The price looks very interesting and the setup asymmetric, though downside remains significant. x.com x.comÂ
T1 Energy's $135M purchase of formerly licensed TOPCon IP could save $25M-$40M in annual fees and improve future margins. A waiver to import up to 1.725 GW of cells could bridge Dallas production until G2 Austin starts in Q1 2027. It could be one of the energy sector's most interesting turnarounds, but is not proven: $120M in convertible debt has been raised, more funding is needed, and further debt or equity could limit existing shareholders' upside. x.comÂ
T1 Energy is likely to struggle until financing terms are announced, though its long-term potential still justifies holding. x.comÂ
Eos Energy looks interesting after recent news that is very positive, at a time when many investors have left the stock for dead. x.comÂ
Eos's Line 2 reaching Line 1's yield suggests higher utilization could spread fixed costs across more production and create operating leverage. Quarterly revenue reached about $82 million, but excluding a previously announced $100 million order, incremental bookings were about $40 million, implying book-to-bill around 0.5. Deposits, credits and a DOE advance helped sustain cash; a rerating still depends on sustainable cash flow, renewed orders and expansion without excessive dilution. x.comÂ
T1 Energy remains unattractive because, as an unprofitable business, it faces high dilution risk, substantial stock-based compensation, reliance on unlikely future promises and valuation that becomes difficult in a panic. x.comÂ
T1 Energy holds a named, near-term catalyst the market has not yet priced: financing for its G2 project is committed for Q2 2026, within six weeks. It is one of the only publicly traded US solar manufacturers operating at scale. It is a 1.1% position in Leopold Aschenbrenner's 13F; there, the large positions look priced for confirmation and were trimmed, while small positions with concrete pending events are where remaining asymmetry is more likely to sit. x.comÂ