GrowthTurtle
Data Science PhD & IEEE Fellow, Ex-Two Sigma
Silicom's 58% year-over-year revenue growth is what drove the stock, and the next leg depends on that revenue turning into earnings. It still loses money, with a -20% operating margin last fiscal year, so the margin line now decides the case. The earlier view rested on 3.4 times sales on 33% growth, its first AI inference production order and a blue-chip design win. x.comÂ
Silicom is left standing in small custom edge-inference sockets that Nvidia and Broadcom won't chase and banned Chinese OEMs can't serve. The smart-NIC maker booked its first AI inference production order on June 30, pulling its 2026 ramp forward. Revenue rose 33% to $67M TTM, it holds $35M of net cash, and it trades at 2.9x EV/sales. Risks: it is a small, loss-making, Israel-based company, a design-win stall would kill the rerating, and the CEO's RSUs require $83M of 2026 revenue. x.comÂ
Silicom's existing designs are still ramping, so FY27 should be strong even from today's wins, though more design wins are needed. A roughly flat sequential Q4 guide does not make the quarter poor: Silicom posted a double beat, raised guidance and is close to profitability. It has tailwinds beyond its partial AI exposure at about 3x sales, but the market remains unmoved. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Silicom is still early on an AI inference ramp that could lift both revenue and margins. Conversion of an H2 2026 proof of concept at a Tier 1 hyperscaler would bring tens of thousands of FPGA inference cards, shifting mix toward higher-margin product and lifting gross margin from a depressed 30% toward the 2022 peak of 34%. Cash plus working capital covers about half the market cap, bounding the bear case, and the probability-weighted value is $85 against a $38 share price, about 2.23x. x.com … Show more
Silicom is a recovering custom-networking supplier with real but early option value in AI inference networking, post-quantum cryptography and white-label switching. 2025 revenue rose to $61.9m, Q4 grew 17% and Q1 2026 guidance implies about 18% growth; it won 8 design wins in 2025 and targets 7-9 in 2026, several worth $1m-$10m a year. It runs at ~41% of 2022 revenue and loses money, and inventory at 84% of revenue risks write-downs. With ~$74m of cash and securities and no debt, EV is ~$69m. … Show more
Super Micro Computer's strong demand outlook and revenue growth do not guarantee long-term strength. Margins, capital intensity, supply-chain risks and competition all matter alongside growth. Management has moved past earlier allegations, but sentiment still weighs on the valuation, so the risks deserve as much weight as the growth potential. x.comÂ
Marvell looks attractive even on current guidance, which keeps rising as AI infrastructure demand may be outpacing long-term models. Its fiscal 2028 revenue target has climbed from $13 billion in September 2025 to $18 billion now, up 38% in under a year. With fiscal 2027 guided at $12 billion, the next six quarters imply $24.84 billion of revenue and, at a 31.6% non-GAAP net margin, $7.85 billion of earnings, so at $216.62 the stock trades at about 24 times that. x.com x.comÂ
SentinelOne is a pathetic company because it still runs -23% GAAP margins at about $1B of ARR while growing roughly 20%. Comparable software companies grew 40%+ at that scale while losing less money on a GAAP basis. Per @Sam_Badawi, Q4 revenue rose 20% to $271.2M and ARR 22% to $1.12B, with FY2027 revenue guided to $1.195-1.205B. x.com x.com x.comÂ
