AMD looks overvalued because its price already assumes near-perfect execution. Even if revenue grows 35% a year, per Lisa Su's guidance, from $41B to about $185B by 2031, with 25% FCF margins, the $1.07T valuation is about 21x 2031 free cash flow today. At a 45% growth rate it would still be 16x, which is not cheap. Su is known for beating expectations, but expectations are now high. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

AMD's stock has outrun its fundamentals, leaving it a bad investment at today's price despite an extremely bullish long-term outlook for the business. From April 2025 to September 2026, AMD rose 8x while revenue grew 55%; Nvidia rose 2.4x while revenue grew 118%. AMD had previously lagged despite improving fundamentals, but the market's catch-up went too far. Its risk/reward is no longer what it was at roughly 20x forward earnings in 2025; a crash could make it attractive again. x.com  x.com 

AMD is held for its strong earnings growth, which, when it continues into the next quarter, is a reason to own a company beyond a good-looking chart. Price and risk then decide whether to take the trade. x.com 

AMD is no longer cheap after surpassing the $600 base case originally set for 2029 while it is still 2026. At a 55x forward P/E the market is paying up for its big growth, even though consistent beats and sharply raised long-term guidance show the model working and analysts likely still underestimate its earnings power. It is a hold here, not a buy. x.com 

AMD's numbers remain mediocre, and the stock already trades at what it would earn in 2027 and beyond. @JonahLupton argues AMD is a 2027 story, when growth is expected to accelerate to 60-65% year over year. x.com  x.com 

AMD and Intel look expensive only if agentic AI fails to accelerate CPU demand, and sell-side estimates probably do not yet capture all of that acceleration. AMD trades at 58x and Intel at 68x NTM EPS, with the sell side modeling EPS CAGRs through CY2029 of 66% and 82%. Beating CY2029 estimates of $31.50 and $4.75 by 30-40% would lift those CAGRs to about 78% and 97%. Despite frothy multiples, that EPS growth is hard to argue with. x.com 

AMD's $518 share price is far ahead of what it earns: less than $7 a share annualized, in the greatest earnings environment in its history. Annualizing its $11.5B quarterly revenue to $46B puts it at 18 times revenue, a 5.5% yield even if it had no taxes, employees or cost of goods and simply collected the money. x.com 

AMD is trading at its highest valuation in a decade, and another comparison puts it at about three times Nvidia's valuation. x.com 

Nvidia offers better risk/reward than AMD because the growth gap between them is small while the valuation gap is wide. Nvidia is expected to grow earnings about 45% a year through 2028 versus about 43% for AMD, yet trades near 15x 2028 earnings against AMD's 30x. AMD is still liked long term, and MI450 and Helios could be huge and win it share, but the market already prices in much more of that upside. Nvidia's estimates can also keep rising, at larger scale and with stronger margins. x.com  … Show more

AMD is the textbook example of a stock with too much priced into its valuation: it delivered flawless earnings and still sold off. x.com