MercadoLibre's commerce and fintech revenue growth underpins the view that its shares are undervalued at current prices. The attached chart shows quarterly commerce services revenue reaching $4.3 billion and fintech revenue $4.4 billion in June 2026, up from $769 million and $467 million in March 2021. x.com 

MercadoLibre's marketplace repayment data means much sharper fintech risk pricing, much more revenue per user, a much better loyalty program and even lower churn. Its fintech already has rapidly growing engagement and resilient cross-cycle underwriting; relatively high GDP per capita alongside heavy cash use leaves room to displace cash. Both its marketplace and fintech are growing rapidly. x.com  x.com 

MercadoLibre's collapsing margins and earnings make its 45-times-earnings valuation look like a value trap. It faces intense competition, and less of its revenue reaches the bottom line; falling earnings make the stock more expensive even as its price falls. Nu Holdings trades at 17 times earnings and Inter & Co at 7 times, with both growing revenue and earnings robustly. Selling MercadoLibre to build positions in companies with better fundamentals is under consideration. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

MercadoLibre is Amazon, PayPal, FedEx and a bank in one, building Latin America's digital infrastructure in early innings with a full-stack data moat no rival has matched across 18 countries. Mercado Pago processes $87B a quarter, two-thirds outside the marketplace, and banking licenses cut out middlemen; logistics delivers 80% of goods within 48 hours and credit defaults run near half the industry rate. Q1 revenue grew 49% to $8.85B. Margin pressure from heavy investment is the trade-off. x.com 

Nu and MercadoLibre's biggest secular-growth advantage is resilience to electoral and macro shocks. Nu hit 139 million customers and $1 billion quarterly net income through Brazil's recession, impeachment and pandemic. MercadoLibre survived the dot-com crash and devaluations; Mercado Pago has nearly 78 million monthly users and credit growth above 90% year on year. With regional e-commerce growing 15%-20% annually, their value through 2027 depends on adoption and delinquencies, not one election. … Show more

Political uncertainty and Amazon competition have held MercadoLibre's stock back despite a humming business. The company is great and the stock deserves to turn, but at roughly 45 times earnings and only about 12% gained over five years, it has remained a difficult stock to own. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

MercadoLibre's 20% drop after a strong Q4 is not a reason to sell, because Latin American fintech is a decade-long story and the market is wrong more often than the business. Q4 revenue rose 45% to $8.8B, the stock now trades under 30x forward earnings, and MercadoPago is a moat within a moat. x.com 

MercadoLibre's huge Mercado Pago user base could make individual stock trading hard for Argentine brokers to compete with. Retail users already keep money in the app, pay bills, receive salaries and make transfers, so adding shares there could be a game changer even if the brokerage is only good enough; the UX can improve over time. FromValue reports that Marcos Galperin said the feature is due in a few months. x.com  x.com 

MercadoLibre may not be a buy yet, since its margin-compressing investment cycle looks set to run for a while. An AI-assisted review of gross and operating margins against prior investment cycles points that way, after a first read of the risk/reward had looked like a buy. The stock is worth revisiting at the end of the year. x.com  x.com 

MercadoLibre looks fairly valued to slightly undervalued once Commerce, Payments and Credit are valued separately, since a single DCF doesn't work for the business. The scenarios give $1,020 in the bear case, $1,980 in the base case and $3,515 in the bull case. x.com