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Schulz Duggan

AI Supply-Chain Research, Optics/Memory/Macro, Original Asian/US Filings & Pricing

16 Sep, 01:11Latest

The pacing-trade selloff in AI hardware looks early, since Nvidia's Jensen Huang and OpenAI's policy chief both say they don't need the antitrust waiver the slowdown plan requires. Hardware, quantum and space names fell a median 7.3% while CrowdStrike, Netskope and Palo Alto Networks gained 13-19% over two sessions, paying for a slowdown whose legal mechanism its biggest players rejected. Watch whether the Banks-Schiff carveout survives the defense bill and whether lab compute orders change. x.com

14 Sep, 16:52

Cybersecurity looks better placed than AI chips after Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei's pacing essay. It adds security and verification costs at labs, citing rogue agent swarms, sandbox escapes and model-weight theft, while nothing yet binds a training budget: compute limits need an antitrust waiver Washington rejected. CrowdStrike, Palo Alto and Netskope were already accelerating, with CrowdStrike's net new ARR up 51%. Micron and Nvidia sold off, extending a three-month lag in supplier layers. x.com x.com x.com

Daniel Romero

Technology Equity Analyst, Semiconductors/Data Centers/Physical AI

29 Oct

AMD

AMD could see much more accelerator demand as OpenAI and Anthropic allegedly increase their orders by multiple gigawatts. Nvidia's only real edge over AMD may soon be its size and resources; Lisa Su is a master operator. x.com

Terry

Private Fund Portfolio Manager & Trader

26 Oct

NVDA

Nvidia retains pricing power if its full system keeps reducing customers' cost per effective AI task. Strong AI demand alone does not ensure profits across the chain: rising chip, memory and optical costs burden buyers, while tighter financing and slow collections threaten operators. Large customers developing their own chips could pressure Nvidia's margins even as the market grows. x.com

Rich Peter

Investor, Crypto, US Stocks & High-Dividend ETFs

29 Oct

NVDA

Antitrust scrutiny of Nvidia's Hugging Face deal puts the duration of its AI-stack valuation at risk. Per Reuters, the DOJ is probing the roughly $13 billion deal. The near-term tests are whether it faces an unwind, conditions or delay, and how labs price dependence if model hubs concentrate under the same chip vendor. x.com

Options selling with Christian

Growth Investor, Options Selling, Creator of Stock Catalysts

27 Oct

NVDA

Fresh funding for AI expansion supports a continued bid for AI stocks as compute spending shows no sign of slowing. Meta committed to $95B in shareholder dilution for AI, Anthropic is set to have $200B in cash in a couple of weeks, and SpaceX got a $40B Apollo loan solely to buy more Nvidia GPUs. The Anthropic IPO might even be a positive catalyst rather than the negative one many fear. x.com

Fede Sandler

Former IRO at Mercado Libre/Nubank, Forbes Columnist

26 Oct

Anthropic's compute commitments point to future revenue for Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, Broadcom and Nvidia. Its S-1 reports 14-fold revenue growth, positive second-quarter 2026 EBIT and more than $600 billion committed to compute through 2045. The AI trade is alive and well, more than expected, provided demand keeps pace with those commitments. x.com

Pegasus

Long/Short Equity Investor

22 Oct

NVDA

Nvidia may be left to bail out AI labs because political and hyperscaler support looks exhausted. Trump's tech policy, perceived cronyism and lack of public benefit leave little appetite for a government rescue, while his deficit capacity has already been used and hyperscalers have spent their money. x.com

Quality Equities

Quality Equity Investor, Concentrated Portfolios

17 Oct

NVDA

Nvidia's capacity commitments argue against AI orders drying up soon. Its filings show mostly memory and manufacturing commitments rising from $119 billion to $279 billion in one quarter, with about $175 billion covering 2027-28. Fewer new data-center projects could reflect power, land and building bottlenecks rather than weaker demand; a mid-teens multiple still reflects a fair worry that profits may not last. x.com

Albert Ana

AI & Crypto Commentary

27 Oct

NVDA

Nvidia gets paid for AI infrastructure while the companies funding AI buildouts bear the spending. Alongside Apple's edge hardware business, Nvidia's position as a supplier distinguishes it from the AI spenders that are losing to companies collecting the cash. x.com

Say No To Trading

Public Markets Investor, Opportunistic Buying & Cost-Basis Management

15 Oct

NVDA

Nvidia faces risks on both sides of the AI cycle. Vendor financing is a concern at the center of the buildout: strong AI sentiment brings competition, while weaker sentiment brings a slowdown. That makes it the largest holding of greatest concern. x.com

Vlad Bastion

Founder of Investment Bastion, Systematic Stock Ratings & Algorithmic Portfolios

14 Oct

NVDA

NVIDIA's free-model plan could defend chip demand as the two largest AI labs cut reliance on its hardware. OpenAI is building a chip with Broadcom; Anthropic mostly uses Google and Amazon chips. NVIDIA is putting together Reflection AI (in talks), Hugging Face and Groq for free models and paid chips. At 11x expected 2029 earnings versus ~19x for Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon and 32x for Apple, its price reflects fears of slower AI spending and lost customers. NVIDIA is a 'Maximum Opportunity'. … Show more

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