GrowthTurtle
Data Science PhD & IEEE Fellow, Ex-Two Sigma
Ampco-Pittsburgh, one of the last Western forgers of the work rolls every steel mill wears out, is absorbing orders displaced by a South American competitor's exit. Q2 orders rose 50% to about $144M, backlog rose about 12% to $385.4M and adjusted EBITDA grew 22% with a return to profit. A re-rating from 0.8x toward 1x EV/sales gives $9-10 if backlog converts, $11-12 if Q3 orders hold above $140M. Risks: $142M debt against $7M cash, asbestos and the steel cycle; bear case $7. x.comÂ
Ampco-Pittsburgh is now the only US company still forging large mill rolls at scale, and mills left by a South American roll producer's exit this summer must re-source somewhere. Orders jumped 50% q/q to $144M, backlog rose 12% y/y to $385.4M, booked into 2027, and Q2 returned to profit. Revenue is $428M at 0.8x EV/sales. Risks: $142M of debt against $7M of cash, legacy asbestos, a cyclical steel market, and European forges possibly absorbing the displaced demand first. x.comÂ
Steel is pricier and still in short supply, factories told ISM, a backdrop for Nucor, the biggest US steelmaker. The stock just bounced at a higher low. x.comÂ
Steel is in a strong bull market since the tariff-panic lows, driven by strong demand and a weakening US dollar. All metals are moving higher, though miners are hampered by higher oil prices. x.comÂ
Steel is the bottleneck behind AI's power bottleneck, and mill equipment makers like Danieli benefit most from the upgrade cycle it forces. Transformers need grain-oriented electrical steel, gas turbines need rotor forgings only a few forges can make, and power lines use steel-reinforced cable. About 70% of global blast-furnace capacity hits reinvestment deadlines before 2030, forcing mills to invest, sell or die after years of underinvestment. Danieli's 50% gain in a year is just the start. … Show more
