Talen Energy is cheap at about 5x free cash flow one year out, not the 40x EV/EBITDA skeptics cite. x.com  x.com 

Talen Energy got cheap with the unwound data-center trade, not because its forecast broke, and more of its cash flow is now locked in. Management puts 2028 adjusted free cash flow at about $36 a share, or $41 with buybacks, 30% above the January outlook. The AWS nuclear PPA ramps to 480 MW by mid-2028, and the 2028/29 PJM auction cleared 10,180 MW at $325 per MW-day, about $1.2B of capacity revenue. Most free cash flow goes back into buybacks. x.com 

Talen Energy remains a short heading below $270, where it may get marginally more interesting. Its hedge-fund holders must eventually sell. Compressed spark spreads plus higher interest expense on recently bought gas assets are ugly, and its long spark exposure turns against it if gas prices rise a lot. It carries negative AI and midterm beta, and regulators attacking the AWS contract could be the final, possibly big, leg down. A Constellation or Vistra takeover looks unlikely. x.com  x.com  x.com  … Show more

Talen Energy owns assets that cannot be cheaply rebuilt, and its growth after 2027 comes from a specific data center contract. Its 10.1 GW across ten eastern-grid plants is anchored by the 2.2 GW Susquehanna nuclear station, whose adjacent data center campus has a ten-year deal with a large cloud customer. Rebuilding would cost $12,300-17,570 per kW and take 84 months, and costs keep rising. The base business peaks in 2027 and falls 27% by 2030, while data center EBITDA grows about 18-fold. … Show more

US energy stocks are being steadily accumulated after a 17-year base, and that base will not resolve in a month. The sector broke out this year and pulled back on contracting volume, which is digestion, not distribution. Energy trades near 13x earnings versus about 20x for hyperscalers. Stocks now rise with oil and get bought back when oil falls. Tech is priced for the cost of capital to come down; energy for the reason it will not. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Constellation Energy's baseline is now strong enough to support the equity story without immediate new hyperscaler deals; AI and contracting add upside. Its new framework guides 2026 adjusted operating EPS of $11.00-12.00 and 20%+ base EPS growth through 2029, excluding buyback accretion, with a $5.0B buyback and $3.9B of growth capital. Shares fell because management announced no new data center deal after expecting one by this call, and the EPS midpoint was slightly below consensus. x.com 

Oklo builds and sells electricity, which makes it a utility to be valued on earnings, not a tech company. Per Joe Gamble, speaking at a March investor summit, utilities average about 20x profit, yet Oklo sat at a $9 billion valuation with no revenue and no earnings, while management sold shares as fast as it could print them. x.com 

Vistra offers an extremely low-risk entry for cash seeking a safer home than tech stocks. Its free-cash-flow yield has risen to 11-12% from the 10-11% BofA cited in an August 6 report, attractive even with Treasuries at 5.25%, and the stock should be well above $150-160 within two months. The FERC news may warrant building a position more slowly, but the outlook remains bullish. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Vistra is one of the best value investments in the market, positioned at power, the largest bottleneck in the AI buildout. It reaffirmed 2026 guidance of $6.8-7.6 billion adjusted EBITDA and $3.9-4.7 billion free cash flow, about 16x forward earnings and 9x EV/EBITDA, with 97%+ fleet availability through summer heat. Upside beyond that guidance comes from a 20-year, 2,609 MW nuclear deal with Meta, the $4.7 billion Cogentrix gas acquisition and a role powering Helix Digital Infrastructure. x.com 

Constellation Energy, owner of the largest US nuclear fleet, trades at 23x forward earnings while analysts expect 21% annual EPS growth and a 30x multiple. On those estimates, it would return about 23% a year, or 86% over three years. x.com