GrowthTurtle
Data Science PhD & IEEE Fellow, Ex-Two Sigma
Aspen Aerogels looks cheap at $6.89, about 20% below the low end of an estimated $8.58-10.92 fair-value range. The levels come only from reported earnings and revenue estimates, not fundamental work; the stock trades at 1.6x EV/sales with negative forward EPS, and $5.36 is the pullback zone. x.com
Aspen Aerogels could return to the $20-30 area as European auto contracts ramp and reduce its dependence on GM. Its PyroThin barrier stops a failing EV battery cell from becoming a pack fire, and new wins include Toyota, ACC/Mercedes, Volvo, JLR, Audi, Scania and an unnamed US OEM, mostly entering production in 2027 and later. These could reach 50%+ of PyroThin revenue, versus about 50% from GM. Proprietary processes and 400 patents form a moat, and the depressed price gives good risk-reward. … Show more
Aspen Aerogels should be getting wrecked, because the market has not priced in the second-order effects of the explosion that closed its only manufacturing plant. Per @RFortunae, the roughly $50 million market cap loss may match the direct cost, but Aspen has a liquidity covenant and burns about $45 million a year, so it may need to raise capital, and GM and prospective customers could cancel contracts. Its product exists to prevent fires, yet its main factory apparently keeps catching fire. … Show more
