GrowthTurtle
Data Science PhD & IEEE Fellow, Ex-Two Sigma
Webull looks cheap against its sales at $9.48. It trades at 3x sales, while software companies usually get 9x. Applying 9x to next year's sales, give or take 12%, gives a fair range of $18.01 to $22.92, leaving the stock 47% under the low end. This is a levels-only read off reported earnings and revenue estimates, with no fundamental work. x.comÂ
Webull looks too cheap and Robinhood too expensive. Webull's Q2 revenue rose 51%, options volume 68%, equity volume 73% and operating profit 169%, with a 31% operating margin and AUM up 79%. It trades at 4.6x 2026 and 3.7x 2027 EV/revenue, versus 18.8x and 14.8x for Robinhood, which is a much bigger, better company but has only 6.5x more revenue with 26x the enterprise value. On 2027 non-GAAP EPS estimates, Webull trades at 25x versus 31x for Robinhood. x.com x.comÂ
Webull's strong second-quarter report has triggered another Stage 2 breakout in the stock. Adjusted EPS came in at $0.12 against a $0.03 estimate, and sales of $198.8 million beat the $181.3 million expected. x.com x.comÂ
Webull still looks too bubbly on valuation compared with other fintechs, even though it is a good broker. x.comÂ
Webull looks bullish into its August 19 earnings, with whales positioned for good results. Its AI push turns the platform into an active decision partner that researches securities, analyzes portfolios and gives personalized real-time guidance. Q1 equity volume more than doubled to $261B, and customer assets rose 90% to $24B on 91% net-deposit growth. Technically it sits on its 20/50 EMA and volume shelf, with a strong chance to retest the 200 EMA and more. x.comÂ
Webull's earnings show the operating leverage of a possible baby Robinhood: revenue rose 51% while operating expenses grew just 13%. If the bull market keeps drawing in more retail investors, platforms like Webull should keep succeeding, though whether it can sustain the trajectory remains to be seen. A retest under $8 would be the ideal buy zone, but it cannot be counted on, and holding at current levels looks fine. x.comÂ
Webull is a pass despite being a decent brokerage at a fairly decent valuation, because its leadership is mediocre. x.comÂ
Workday at 3x sales is a travesty for a business of its quality, implying the market expects management to destroy value through poor capital allocation on top of AI fears. It could likely raise margins toward 30% without much customer impact, given bloat and complacency; the same factors that make it easy to catch up also make it easy to run more profitably. Venture valuations like Rippling's make more sense with Workday at 6-8x sales. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Webull faces a national-security overhang from its China ties. Per CNBC, citing House congressional panel findings, Webull's China ties are a national security risk, and the stock dropped 10%. The core problem is that Webull controls $25B of customer assets and allegedly routes retail data through a mainland development team. The CEO has sold 200k shares since late August, and other insiders have also been selling. x.com x.comÂ
