GrowthTurtle
Data Science PhD & IEEE Fellow, Ex-Two Sigma
ClearPoint Neuro looks expensive against its sales, at 11x trailing and 8x next year's sales versus the roughly 5x medical-device makers usually get. Fair value is $7.16 to $9.11, about 5x next year's sales give or take 12%, putting the $13.83 price 52% above fair. The valuation leans on forecasts, with forward sales 40% above trailing. This is a levels-only read off reported earnings and revenue estimates, with no fundamental work. x.com
ClearPoint Neuro consistently disappoints on multiple levels, and other stocks don't. Its business is hard to forecast and build, and quarterly or annual guides are not how real businesses run, but the misses keep coming. @StockDaddy6597 notes repeated guide-downs and slipping timelines, with GLP readiness pushed from end-2025 to 2026 and big study wins now expected in late 2027. x.com
Intuitive Surgical is worth 30 times earnings at most, below where it trades. Judged purely on its financials, without knowing what the company does, even 30 times would be too high. x.com
Commercialization by at least a handful of ClearPoint Neuro's partners should make its shares 10x higher over ten years. x.com
Boston Scientific looks reasonably priced for the risk after a 45% drawdown. It is a cardiology medtech leader with high-single-digit organic growth, a strong margin profile and a proven eye for tuck-in M&A, now at a mid-to-high-teens P/E, a discount to the market where it historically traded at a premium. The selloff happened for a reason, and the case fails only if the Penumbra deal and current revenue scale mean its growth is over. x.com x.com
Boston Scientific's extreme pessimism is already priced in after weaker-than-expected results destroyed the stock, leaving it at 11x 2027 earnings and creating a potential opportunity. The company makes medical devices, mainly for cardiology. x.com
ClearPoint Neuro would become a cash-flow machine if uniQure's AMT-130 reaches commercial launch, and after today's positive reversal it is a much better risk-reward than before the event, as @LogicalThesis points out. Commercial partners pay more for equipment and consumables than trial partners, and royalties flow straight to the bottom line. With more clarity on approval it could regain or pass its October 2025 peak near $30. Without an anchor commercial partner it is far less attractive. … Show more
TransMedics, Hims & Hers, Harrow, PROCEPT BioRobotics, ClearPoint Neuro, Alphatec and Compass Pathways can double in 2–3 years and triple in 3–5 because these small- and mid-cap healthcare names trade at only 2–3x next-12-month revenue. Software and cloud stocks people are chasing at 20–30x make such returns hard. Alphatec looks attractive after its earnings selloff, while Compass is very speculative and should not be chased. x.com
