The world's largest companies stand to benefit most from AI. Buying Meta, Amazon, Nvidia, Alphabet and Microsoft might be enough to outperform the market over the next few years. x.com 

Diversified cash flows in the billions make the AI-buildout basket more appealing than standalone model companies. Many members look reasonably priced and have longer records of delivering returns; Anthropic and OpenAI look much more like gambles at current valuations, though either could appeal at the right price. A possible equal-weight portfolio to revisit in five years includes Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta, Oracle and SpaceX. x.com  x.com 

Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft and Meta are not getting cheap; their multiples are sliding because separate monopolies are turning into one competitive market. They now spend enormous sums to sell the same AI to the same customers, funded largely by cyclical ads, on unproven returns. Microsoft faces AI eating per-seat licensing, Amazon fights in both retail and cloud, Alphabet's search premium is gone, and Meta keeps going all in for less. Markets can't price not knowing what a business will be. … Show more

Alphabet's businesses beyond search are why it will lead the real AI boom. Google Cloud, DeepMind and Waymo broaden its reach, and its $900 million SpaceX investment is now worth $85 billion. Fear emerging as the shares fall is an opportunity; a decline toward the buy zone is welcome, even as Q3 capex has taken a large hit out of free cash flow. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Meta's core advertising business is significantly outgrowing its biggest competitors even before factoring in the newer businesses it is building. Q3 ad revenue rose 26% year over year, versus 10.6% at Alphabet and 10.9% at Amazon. Back at 19x forward earnings, Meta is the most undervalued Magnificent Seven stock. x.com  x.com 

Alphabet, Meta and Microsoft keep raising capital spending while investors' patience runs out. The spending continues as if there is no tomorrow, and margin and option holders are getting decimated. x.com 

Google Cloud's accelerating growth positions it to lead the AI cloud market, strengthening Alphabet beyond Search. It may pass Azure next quarter, then AWS, rising from #3 to #1 in 18-24 months. Selling its Anthropic stake could fund 12-18 months of capex and buybacks, but moving roughly $300B at market price without harming their TPU and Cloud partnership is unlikely. Alphabet is cheaper than Anthropic on sales or earnings multiples; the market likely expects a 2027 capital raise. x.com  x.com  … Show more

Alphabet's search monopoly faces a different competitive game as agent companies build their own search tools. Google Cloud grew 103%, but that was not enough to offset disappointing ads growth. Its only path is to accelerate AI training and keep spending on capex. Search will never be the same, and the risk-reward has changed, though Alphabet remains an optimistic prospect. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Hyperscalers' incremental return on capital is cratering, so hard spending decisions are coming. In the June quarter, Amazon, Microsoft and Alphabet grew LTM EBIT 20% but needed 38% more deployed capital, before token prices cratered and with much demand from non-self-sustaining OpenAI. Compute and models may become a utility-like commodity. Insiders are selling, with Jeff Bezos filing to sell $4B of Amazon stock, and Google's $25B bond deal widened hyperscaler credit spreads. x.com  x.com 

Alphabet's AI-mode ads could move the needle, giving the stock a tentative upside bias despite search uncertainty. Search supplies $39b of $41b in quarterly segment profit, but its revenue growth slowed to 12% and will likely slow to 10% in Q4. Queries remain healthy; Alphabet says AI queries are mostly additive. Cloud revenue grew 96% year over year. At 18x a slightly above-consensus 2027 GAAP EPS estimate for over 30% operating profit growth, the stock remains a tough call. x.com  x.com  x.com