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Post-midterm seasonality favors further S&P 500 gains from 2026's late-October starting point. Q4 of a midterm year through Q2 of the next year has been the cycle's best nine months, averaging about 20% since 1949. Since 1950, the index was higher six months after October 26 in all 19 midterm years, averaging about 15%. In all seven years entering late October up 5-20% year to date, as in 2026, it rose three, six and twelve months later. x.comÂ
The S&P 500's post-midterm record makes 2027 pullbacks worth buying, though history does not guarantee another gain. It rose in the year after all 19 US midterm elections since 1950, averaging 15.4% over 12 months, 12.4% in six months and 5.7% in three months. Take advantage of market swings by buying pullbacks. x.com x.comÂ
US stocks face a likely negative and volatile September, as September tends to be in midterm election years. x.comÂ
US equities tend to perform well after October in midterm years, making the historical pattern hard to ignore. Since 1950, the S&P 500 rose in 19 of 19 observed 12-month periods after October, averaging 16.6% with a 3.0% worst return. October and November also averaged gains, but history is not a promise. x.comÂ
Crowded fund shorts despite market participation give the S&P 500 a strong upside bias, reinforced by midterm seasonality. Net leverage this low usually appears deep in a bear market or near the end of capitulation. A rally is highly probable, but another 1.5 to 3 weeks of pain is possible: the market could be lower in two weeks, higher in a month and much higher in six months. The S&P 500 has historically gained over 14% after midterms, though there are no guarantees. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
The S&P 500 is vulnerable to a midterm-election drawdown, since history shows nasty 7-16% declines almost always come around midterms. Elevated 10-year yields and a strong dollar add risk, even though nothing looks bearish yet and rising yields have not dented the Nasdaq or mega-caps, and cheap volatility makes hedging attractive. SPY could reach $800 and still fall back to $750 within two months. x.comÂ
Post-midterm market strength calls for patience with US large-cap equities. KHerriage's quoted post cites an average S&P 500 gain of 29.9% over the next 15 months in post-midterm periods since 1950, with gains in 19 of 19 years. x.comÂ
ETRADE's post-midterm return history and the prospect of political gridlock point to higher US stocks. The S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and Alphabet should rise regardless of the election outcome. ETRADE says gridlock limits sweeping tax, regulatory and spending changes; under a Republican president, it reports average next-calendar-year S&P 500 gains of about 16% with Democratic control of Congress and 23% with split control. Strong 2026 gains may limit further upside, particularly in tech. x.comÂ
The S&P 500's heavier semiconductor weighting makes its coming pullback likely larger than the 4% decline in the comparable 1995 period. Its current 16-17 week cycle looks more like November 2025 to March 2026 than the last bullish cycle, pointing to at least the lower Bollinger band in November, with a cycle low due in the month's second half. x.com x.comÂ
Fed hiking-cycle history gives the S&P 500 another favorable setup alongside post-midterm seasonality. The index rose in all seven completed multi-meeting hiking cycles since 1983, averaging about 10%; it also rose 12 months after the final hike in seven of eight cases, averaging about 20%. Along with the 19/19 post-midterm 12-month and 21/21 post-midterm November-to-June records, these streaks lining up in 2026 are very hard to ignore, though history guarantees nothing. x.comÂ