Cybersecurity is the real bubble right now, because greater importance in the age of AI does not justify paying valuations like 40x sales for names such as Cloudflare, CrowdStrike and Palo Alto Networks. x.com 

Anthropic and OpenAI's inevitable move into cybersecurity threatens CrowdStrike and Palo Alto Networks' valuations. They look like the market's biggest bubble stocks right now; CrowdStrike trades at 40x ARR despite 25% growth and negative GAAP EBIT. x.com  x.com 

AI-powered attacks are spreading so fast that companies are unlikely to cut security budgets, even if they slow broader AI spending. The latest wave hit governments, banks, hospitals, grocery chains and businesses, while AI finds vulnerabilities and breaks in around the clock. That is why Cloudflare, Zscaler, CrowdStrike and Palo Alto Networks rose as broader AI concerns hit tech shares. x.com  x.com 

Combining estimated NTM revenue growth with trailing GAAP EBITDA margin makes Palo Alto Networks, Datadog, JFrog, Rubrik and Snowflake look overvalued against forward EV/sales. Zoom, Alphabet, Oracle, AppLovin, Microsoft, Fair Isaac, Adobe, Amazon and Teradata remain undervalued on this Rule of 40 comparison; Palantir, Cloudflare and CrowdStrike remain overvalued. x.com 

Palantir, CrowdStrike and Cloudflare are top-tier companies, but their valuations may have reached bubble territory, a reason to book profits on long-term holds. Their combined market cap has grown from about $90B to $840B, and their P/E and P/S multiples price in much future growth. CrowdStrike and Cloudflare in particular trade on hopes that the agentic era, with bots charged for access and usage-based AI pricing, will make revenue explode. Trimming Cloudflare and CrowdStrike has started. … Show more

CrowdStrike may distinguish itself from an expensive cybersecurity group by showing more breakneck growth at earnings next month. Fortinet's slowing product revenue exposed how much relentless execution investors had priced into the group's extreme multiples, pulling CrowdStrike down in sympathy. CrowdStrike remains in a higher tier than Fortinet, which itself ranks above SentinelOne. x.com  x.com 

CrowdStrike and Palo Alto Networks need 50%-plus growth to deliver even a 10% IRR over a realistic horizon, but almost no conceivable case gets them there. They feel as dumb as Zoom and Peloton in 2021. Even if revenue doubles over four to five years, Palo Alto would still trade at 10x revenue and CrowdStrike at 20x, leaving little prospect of a real IRR; Palo Alto is growing in the teens today. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Cybersecurity is a great AI play, but some valuations are getting absolutely ridiculous, and great companies are not great stocks at any price. CrowdStrike trades at 186x forward earnings and 40x sales, Cloudflare at 209x and 43x, Palo Alto Networks at 87x and 21x, and Rubrik at 327x and 11.5x. x.com 

Cybersecurity stocks have a powerful long-term tailwind because more AI means more complexity, more attack surface and more need for security. CrowdStrike, SentinelOne, Palo Alto Networks, Zscaler, Fortinet, Okta and Rubrik moved up strongly premarket after Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei published an essay arguing the AI industry should slow down, with Anthropic committing to give third-party evaluators permanent access to verify its safety measures. The market may be connecting those dots. x.com 

Cybersecurity stocks are priced for near-perfect execution. Forward P/Es stand at 201x for Cloudflare, 163x for CrowdStrike, 77x for Palo Alto Networks, 44x for Fortinet, 39x for Okta and 32x for Zscaler. x.com