Gaetano
Thematic Investor, Photonics & Physical AI Research
Qualcomm can earn more per vehicle as automakers adopt more capable connectivity, cockpit and driver-assistance platforms, even if vehicle sales are slow. Its CFO said chip content rises 8× from Gen 2 to Gen 4; fiscal Q3 automotive revenue grew 61% to $1.59B. Design wins enter production as new models launch, offering a financial example of the broader physical-AI opportunity. x.com
Qualcomm is still priced as a phone company even as diversification absorbs the loss of Apple modem revenue. Non-handset revenue is now about 34% of QCT; automotive revenue grew 38% to $1.3 billion, with 50% growth guided for Q3 and an exit above $6 billion for FY2026. Snapdragon X2 Elite gives it edge-AI leadership, with over 100 Copilot+ PC designs. Q2 FY2026 beat on revenue of $10.6 billion and EPS of $2.65. The Apple overhang of about $6-8 billion is priced in and nearly over. x.com
Qualcomm could rerate from a handset chipmaker into an AI infrastructure story now that Amazon is co-developing multiple generations of inference silicon with it. As AI shifts toward stacks built around workloads, power and cost, Qualcomm need not beat Nvidia, only help optimize around the GPU. Amazon and Qualcomm are also working on 1.6T links using Qualcomm SerDes and optical DSPs, entering a space led by Broadcom and Marvell. Deployment volumes and further design wins would confirm it. x.com
AMD and Intel look undervalued against Arm, while Qualcomm faces two hellish years. AMD is worth only 2x Arm despite 6x higher, faster-growing net profit, and Intel only 70% more than Arm, though its CPU business alone should be worth twice as much on a normalized basis, with foundry covering the rest. Qualcomm was hit by Apple and then memory prices, is being outcompeted by NVIDIA in automotive, and its AI racks are pure desperation. x.com
Qualcomm looks like an overlooked large cap with strong return potential. If it hits its $18 EPS target by 2029, its 18x average P/E implies $324 a share, a 19% CAGR, or $396 and a 27% CAGR at today's 22x, before any upside from major new deals with Amazon and BMW. It is much more than a smartphone chip company: auto is growing 60% year over year and it is moving into data centers. x.com
Qualcomm is about to have its time to shine as on-device AI drives growth. Its Snapdragon platforms bring high-performance, low-power computing to edge AI, and it is expanding beyond phones into cars, industrial and smart devices, backed by leadership in 5G, Wi-Fi and next-generation wireless. x.com
Qualcomm is hurt by plunging consumer smartphone sales. Counterpoint Research's preliminary estimate puts global Q3 2026 shipments down 20% year over year, the lowest Q3 since 2012. Apple outperformed Android but was still down. x.com x.com
Qualcomm has little downside with Amazon having come in as an investor at around $160 a share. Investors give it almost no credit for AI, wearables, robotics and auto, and those businesses can do the heavy lifting to keep the stock steady next year. x.com
Qualcomm's investor day strengthened the long case, as its CFO raised FY2029 non-handset revenue guidance 91% to $40B. Qualcomm disclosed major orders from two hyperscalers, said its Dragonfly C1000 data-center CPU launches in mid-2028 with Meta among the first customers, introduced the AI300 accelerator and data-center interconnect, and expects $6B of annualized automotive revenue in FY2026. It also agreed to buy AI software firm Modular for $3.9B. x.com
Qualcomm has a terrible position in every market it competes in and is not cheap enough to compensate. It faces Nvidia in cars, Intel and AMD in data-center CPUs, and Samsung and Google on their own phones. China is a material share of revenue, and Apple is aggressively cutting out Qualcomm's modem, a long-term revenue headwind. @citrini, bullish since December, made a good call, but the short stands; it also works as a funding short against long compute names such as AMD, SanDisk and Lumentum. … Show more
Qualcomm is becoming a fuller AI infrastructure player, and the market may re-rate it if its $5B fiscal 2027 data center revenue target is met. Most of that target comes from custom chips for one US and one Chinese hyperscaler, about $2B each at mid-30s gross margins. Its High Bandwidth Cache stacks memory on logic for about 6x HBM's bandwidth per watt, easing the inference memory wall. Alphawave's 800G DSPs already earn revenue, and a Meta custom CPU deal carries a minimum share guarantee. … Show more
