LongGameEquity
Long-Term Investor, AI & Software
Vertiv's surging orders and Q3 growth show AI infrastructure demand exceeding expectations. Per WallStEngine, revenue rose 61% to $4.3B, adjusted EPS rose 78% to $2.21, organic orders grew more than 100%, and FY26 guidance was raised above estimates. Vertiv is delivering into accelerating demand for its power and cooling equipment. x.com x.com
Vertiv's growing backlog and recurring maintenance revenue strengthen its power-and-cooling case for AI data centers. The attached chart shows reported backlog rising from $9.5 billion in September 2025 to $15 billion in December 2025; the stock trades nearly 50% below its highs despite being viewed as one of the highest-quality AI infrastructure plays. x.com
Vertiv's power and cooling gear is benefiting from the AI data-center build-out. Q3 net sales rose 61%, operating profit 90% and net income 92%. There is no more direct picks-and-shovels bet on AI infrastructure than Vertiv. Grade: A. x.com
Vertiv's broad earnings beats strengthen the case that it can scale profitably despite execution risk. Revenue grew 61.2% year over year versus 40.1% expected, and operating margin reached 25.2% versus 24.6% expected. Full-year guidance of $14.65B in revenue and $7.15 in EPS exceeds estimates of $14.008B and $6.73. x.com
Vertiv is a great company, supplying the power and cooling AI data centers need as rack densities climb past 100kW, with its cooling systems a major draw. Its liquid-cooling, power, heat-rejection and prefabricated modular systems bring more of the data-center stack under one roof, which could become a meaningful competitive advantage. Grid power and thermal capacity, not silicon supply, are now the limiting factor in AI. x.com x.com
Vertiv's demand is accelerating, so GLJ Research's $188 target against a $255 stock and a consensus near $350 looks badly wrong. Vertiv's orders doubled and deferred revenue just posted the biggest jump in company history; customers prepaying at records is not how a cyclical downturn starts. GLJ's similar sell call on GE Vernova as a cyclical turbine maker failed: the stock now trades above $1,000, over double its target, and its CEO is selling delivery slots for 2032. x.com
AI data centers need cooling, electricity and transmission, sustaining the case for Vertiv, GE Vernova and Quanta Services. Vertiv's sales rose 26% in the past year; its systems cool AI chips. GE Vernova is the go-to power trade for its gas turbines. Quanta builds the lines to data centers and has a record $53B backlog. x.com x.com x.com
Vertiv is investable only on pullbacks because its valuation is borderline rich. Fundamentals are elite: Q2 sales rose 24.1% to $3.27 billion, adjusted operating margin reached 22.6%, it has net cash and a $15 billion backlog. But GuruFocus puts fair value at $157.57 versus a $223.58 price, and the P/E of about 65x is well above the industry's 37x. Red flags include fraud investigations after the post-earnings drop, reliance on hyperscaler capex and project-timing risk. x.com
SK hynix's contracted capacity gives its AI-memory demand case more visibility. It reported an 80% operating margin on ₩104.6 trillion of revenue, with sales more than quadrupling year over year and over half of 2027 and 2028 capacity under long-term contracts. Vertiv's sales grew 61%, orders more than doubled, and it raised full-year guidance again; so far, AI demand is still accelerating. x.com
Vertiv should beat and keep raising 2026 guidance because AI data center demand still exceeds supply. The proprietary pipeline added 50+ GW in 1Q26, 415 GW in the US since January 2023. Even flat orders near $18 billion would lift backlog from $15 billion to about $18 billion, implying about $25 billion of 2027 sales versus the Street's $16.9 billion. Base EPS of $6.75/$9.50 for 2026/27 tops the Street at a PEG under 1x. Margins are the watch item; the big run makes the print less attractive. … Show more
AI infrastructure names such as Vertiv, Bloom Energy and Sterling are an attractive, asymmetric short because slowing data-center builds should slow their order growth. Semis are historically overbought, a $200 billion company jumped 40% on its CEO calling it undervalued, companies may start rationalizing AI spend, Anthropic's revenue acceleration could slow, and a $1.5 trillion space IPO looms. Any waning momentum could cause severe unraveling. This is a high-conviction playbook into September. … Show more
Vertiv's growth and cash flow make its valuation the better risk/reward than Bloom Energy at these prices. It is the one I'd buy first for a long-term hold: 23x next year's earnings with 37% EPS growth, nearly $3B in free cash flow and almost no net debt. Adjusted operating profit of $1.087B topped the $938M guidance ceiling; revenue and EPS also beat estimates. x.com
