SpaceX's orbital compute is a much bigger opportunity than Tesla's robotaxi, shifting merger gains toward Tesla holders over longer horizons. Robotaxi exceeds Starlink; Optimus needs more time and vast superintelligence. At today's share-price ratio versus no merger, Tesla holders are ~1.6x better off in 2031 and ~5x in 2036, versus ~2x and ~1.3x for SpaceX holders in the model. A roughly 30% Tesla premium balances 2031 gains; a roughly 50% Tesla discount balances 2036 gains. x.com  x.com 

SpaceX will acquire Tesla at a premium, making Tesla preferable to SpaceX before the merger announcement. x.com 

Tesla's aerial flips and wall-driving have little use for ordinary customers, making earnings from the demonstration hard to see and pointing to a lower share price. If the widely expected SpaceX merger is all-stock, a 10% lower Tesla price at signing would give Musk about 0.5 percentage points more of the combined company, at other Tesla shareholders' expense; he owns roughly 40% of SpaceX but 20% of Tesla. x.com  x.com 

Full integration with SpaceX could lift Tesla's value by removing related-party friction and sharing chips, compute and capital under one plan. Space would become a market for Optimus and energy storage. Tesla is significantly undervalued because the market gives too little credit to energy, autonomy, Robotaxi, Optimus and AI; SpaceX is equally undervalued. A no-premium merger of equals is fair while valuations remain comparable. No deal is announced; early next year looks most likely. x.com  … Show more

SpaceX's AI business and profitable growth challenge calls for its stock to go much lower. Q3 revenue reached $14.6B, up 161%, with $4.4B profit and $7.6B from AI. A Tesla merger is being discussed. x.com 

Tesla's latest reveal has no financial viability for shareholders yet because anything like it may not reach roads before 2035. Like Optimus in 2021, it is cool but not viable yet. SpaceX shareholders should get Tesla at a bargain after Tesla takes a serious beating: Musk owns 49% of SpaceX and already controls its vote, so a depressed acquisition price would give them a better deal while consolidating his control. The merger looks like a matter of when, not if; its price is the question. x.com  … Show more

A SpaceX acquisition of Tesla now seems very likely, at over $500 per share within the next 12 months. Investors are also bullish on robots and robotaxis, so Tesla's fundamentals and valuation do not seem to matter now and have not for some time. x.com 

Elon Musk's projected SpaceX revenue could make SpaceX and Tesla holders insanely rich. Musk predicts more than $2 trillion in SpaceX revenue by 2033; that could imply a combined value of $38 trillion for the two companies. x.com 

Tesla's $1.5T Elon premium looks unjustified while Musk seems to favor SpaceX for the AI compute buildout. Tesla shareholders missed almost the entire AI boom; owning xAI and building that infrastructure might have doubled Tesla's stock. Q3 adjusted EPS was $0.48, down 4% year over year; if Tesla were a non-Musk company, four such quarters at 10x earnings would mean $19.20 a share versus $386. Long-term company prospects remain attractive, but the stock is still not worth buying back. x.com  … Show more

Demand for a single way to invest in Musk's vision supports the case for a Tesla-SpaceX merger. Most investors spoken with want that option; the merger looks much closer than most expect, and Kalshi puts its chance before 2028 at 77%. If forced to own one of the two with a merger in prospect, SpaceX is preferable to Tesla because of Musk's ownership structure. x.com  x.com