MSOS's underlying cannabis operators burn cash, dilute shareholders frequently and have poor management, so waiting for US regulatory reform still entails substantial time decay. x.com
Ian Bezek
Investor/Writer, Latin American Equities, Former Analyst at Kerrisdale
Redwire's persistent cash burn and repeated share issuance weaken its investment case despite $13.8m of National Guard drone orders. Training soldiers on its Stalker drones may build familiarity, but operating losses and share expansion threaten shareholder economics. x.com
Glass House Brands is falling apart, down 66% since June, and its business will stay tough until regulation changes. x.com
Cannabis stocks offer an excellent entry point after a procedural pause in the DEA rescheduling hearing triggered near-panic selling. The industry has never been closer to rescheduling and resolving custody and uplisting issues, and it recently refinanced its debt on excellent rate and duration terms. The pause until October 13 may delay rescheduling somewhat but is unlikely to derail it, and institutional investors should begin entering over the rest of the year. x.com
Innovative Industrial Properties looks cheaper than the cannabis operators it leases to, with far more predictable revenue and a much stronger balance sheet, so being bullish on operators but bearish on the landlord makes little sense. The going-concern warning only reflects not holding the full cash for $291M of notes due this month at filing; redeeming them should be no problem. Leverage is below operators' and far below typical REITs'. Tenant defaults, such as PharmaCann's, are real. x.com
Enforcement of hemp/THCA restrictions is critical to reshaping the cannabis industry and could be its next major lever. The view follows observations in wholesale hemp/THCA distribution, without specifying what those observations showed. x.com
Trump's push to reclassify cannabis from Schedule I to Schedule III is a massive tailwind for the sector, including multi-state operators and Cronos Group. It would end the 280E tax that has crushed margins for years, letting companies deduct normal business expenses and instantly boosting cash flow, profitability and valuations. x.com x.com
Cannabis is the least efficient pocket of the market, an opportunity for patient retail investors because long-term institutions and money managers do not yet care about the sector. That is why the stocks did not jump on rescheduling. @aaronvalue adds that so few eyeballs are on the space that investors face almost zero competition. x.com