Chipotle's same-store sales are falling as even more affluent Americans can no longer afford to eat out. That makes it look like the next Wendy's. x.comÂ
Roger
Business Owner, Former Assistant Research Professor
Chipotle's comparable sales trend is worrying heading into earnings, and the chart is ugly. It is trying to win back customers by raising prices more slowly than inflation. Any sign of a real comeback in traffic would be a huge win. x.comÂ
Wendy's fundamentals are falling apart, so the stock was never cheap even well off its highs. It has posted six straight quarters of falling same-store sales as smaller portions and higher prices erased the value proposition that defined the brand. Meritage Hospitality, the franchisee running 314 of its restaurants, just filed for Chapter 11 after its store-level earnings fell 48% last year. x.comÂ
The quarter was a grind, with too much work and many mistakes, but the results were pleasing. x.comÂ
Cava's growth is not sustainable because quality tends to fall as scale goes up, as happened at Chipotle. A post the author replies to adds that Cava's suburban expansion is not making money, same-store sales are down and more than 100 new bowl competitors are eating into it in what it calls a slop-bowl bubble. x.comÂ
Wendy's is on a path to bankruptcy because cutting product quality while raising prices is a near-certain recipe for failure. Those choices were likely forced rather than greedy: as the big cycle turned down, the only options left were bad or worse, with no way out. Many more companies will face the same. x.comÂ
Chipotle finally offers a margin of safety, because the market is fixated on slowing growth, weaker traffic and higher labor and beef costs while ignoring future growth. It trades at 28x earnings versus a historical 51x, revenue still grew 7.5% last quarter, and analysts expect earnings growth of 29% in 2027 and 35% in 2028, backed by an industry-leading brand and exceptional unit economics. If traffic stabilizes and margins hold, multiple expansion alone could drive strong returns. x.comÂ
Restaurant stocks, including Chipotle and Wingstop, are uninvestable right now, with too many better places for money. Most have slowing growth, rising costs and poor margins. Wingstop's growth and margins look better than most, but it is still not a buy. x.com x.comÂ
A Starbucks takeover of Chipotle would be a warning sign: an underperforming company chasing far-from-obvious synergies risks distraction when it needs leadership, product innovation and better merchandising. Chipotle bowls at Starbucks or supply-chain gains look insignificant, and the deal may be CEO Brian Niccol's best chance of keeping his job after two weak years. Per the Financial Times, Starbucks has worked with advisers on a proposal, about $41 billion at Chipotle's current price. x.com … Show more
Pizza is losing share to other fast-food categories, especially chicken and Mexican, which is bearish for Domino's and bullish for Chipotle. x.comÂ
Sweetgreen's same-store sales could fall about 30% next quarter as the cyclosporiasis outbreak keeps diners away from fresh salads. Media outlets are telling people to avoid fresh salads, especially at restaurants, for the next few weeks, and salads are all Sweetgreen sells. Chipotle is less exposed because lettuce is optional in its burritos and bowls. x.com x.com x.comÂ