Schulz Duggan
AI Supply-Chain Research, Optics/Memory/Macro, Original Asian/US Filings & Pricing
FormFactor could see probe-card orders ahead of KYEC's new test floor because cards are built for each chip design. Nvidia plans to double chip-test capacity from 2026 to 2027 and is advancing $1.1bn to KYEC for US facilities targeting volume production in April 2027. Orders could land between now and early 2027; FormFactor's Oct 28 call is the first chance to hear whether they have started. x.com x.com x.comÂ
FormFactor's Farmers Branch plant adds probe-card capacity after sales passed what its older sites could support. Management sized that run rate near $225m a quarter; Q2 sales were $258.2m and Q3 guidance is $270m. The new plant supports HBM and advanced packaging, with most capacity arriving in 2027. Its probe cards also pair with fiber arrays in the Triton photonics test cell, though the plant release names no optical allocation; the optical case depends on orders arriving. x.com x.comÂ
FormFactor is evolving from an HBM probe-card play into a broader AI test platform as Nvidia emerges as a new logic-test market. Per Deutsche Bank, becoming a second source for Nvidia GPU probe cards at TSMC could reach $200M+ revenue by 2028, alongside about $400M of HBM revenue and a roughly $200M custom ASIC opportunity. Micron's print shows HBM demand exceeding supply, and taller, denser stacks make wafer-level testing more valuable. Valuation is the main risk after a 274% one-year rise. … Show more
FormFactor sits in test and packaging, the best corner of semiconductors this year, where much quiet money is being made in the layer that makes compute functional. It makes the probe cards that test chips and ranks first globally in test subsystems. Last quarter set a revenue record, up 32%, with gross margin up 510 basis points to 49% and EPS beating by 33%. DRAM probe card revenue hit a record on HBM, a product sold out through 2030. x.comÂ
FormFactor is expensive against its earnings, trading at about 38x when chip-equipment makers usually get 18x. Fair value sits at $60.06 to $76.44, or 18x next year's $3.79 EPS give or take 12%, so at $145.97 the price is about 91% above fair. The valuation also leans on the forecast, with forward EPS 177% above trailing. This is a levels-only read off reported earnings and revenue estimates, with no fundamental work. x.comÂ
A memory-chip shortage lasting until 2030 is good for Nvidia. SK hynix expects that shortage and reports a 632% profit jump. x.comÂ
Nvidia's neocloud orders increasingly require its own credit support. Per The Information, it is in talks to guarantee billions of Nscale debt for a 460MW data center; Nscale needs an IPO to fund $24B in Nvidia systems committed for 2026-27. Separately, a quoted article says US officials identified Alice Huang, scrutinized for possibly routing Nvidia chips to China, as a Chinese intelligence asset with direct access to Jensen Huang. This is just the tip of a very big iceberg. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Quantum computing's suppliers get paid whoever's machine wins, as steel mills did while most railroads went bankrupt. Chips, test benches, cryogenic freezers, inspection, lasers, vacuum gear and light must be bought regardless. Washington signed nine letters of intent worth about $2.013 billion before any machine was built, half to the one recipient with a working foundry. Only one name is in its buy zone; the rest await lower prices. Two flat quarters of cryogenic and control orders ends it. … Show more
FormFactor and Aehr Test Systems are favored because testing is the one non-optional part of the AI buildout. A single bad die ruins the whole package, so pricier chips mean more testing. FormFactor's probe cards touch every wafer; Q2 set records above a $1B run rate with gross margin over 50%, HBM4 is two-thirds of DRAM revenue and a new GPU program ships this half. Aehr guides fiscal 2027 revenue up 160-200% to $130-150M on a record backlog, plus a $22M AI follow-on order. x.comÂ
Amkor's Nvidia advanced-packaging agreement gives its Arizona expansion a $1.5B multiyear commitment. Q2 sales rose 26% to $1.90B, with record computing revenue; Q3 results are due October 26. x.comÂ
FormFactor's 2030 target model implies either a still-high multiple in 2030 or disappointing share-price gains over the next few years. The model, cited via Citi and apparently management's own, targets $1.6B revenue, 55% gross margin and $5 EPS. The modeled TAM may prove higher, but a margin of safety means assuming today's high multiple won't stay as high. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
FormFactor offers attractive risk/reward as AI probe-card share rises while the stock has corrected 38% to 25x 2027E P/E, versus 33x for MPI and 42x for Technoprobe. Q2 beat with $258.2M revenue and 53.3% gross margin, and Q3 is guided to ~$270M at 54%. Catalysts include an expected 10%+ share on Nvidia Rubin, Intel's 18A ramp lifting server CPU probe demand and pricing by 20-30%, record HBM revenue expected in Q4 and co-packaged optics revenue hitting the high end of FY26 guidance by Q3. x.comÂ
