Stephen Manning
Founder of Cash Flow University, Options Education, Public Setup/Risk/Exit Reviews
Semiconductors could capture scarce spot compute's value if its forward curve holds. Compute trades in deep contango, while chip stocks price in little of that value; near-term moves are unpredictable. That makes the sector very bullish. The earlier lab-funding risk looks less acute: Anthropic should hold nearly $200B cash after its IPO and is operating-cash-flow profitable. Even with 2029 capex cuts, chips look cheap if future buyers do not default. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Some semiconductor stocks have returned to reasonable valuations as fundamentals improve, making recent declines buying opportunities. Many had traded at two to three times their median valuations; the correction brought some back toward normal, while sustained AI spending should benefit suppliers for years. x.comÂ
Tech and semiconductor bounces are mainly driven by less urgent hedge-fund selling rather than fresh buying. Per Goldman Sachs, tech is still being sold amid very low activity; there is no sign risk has been added yet. The unwind may be nearing its end, especially as hyperscalers stick to capex plans and Q3 semiconductor earnings look likely to be positive. Less crowded positioning and more normal multiples leave a healthier base for a longer-term rebuild. x.comÂ
Semiconductor leaders look better placed than high-beta stocks with poor company models. TSMC, ASML, Nvidia and memory should lead the sector and belong in the buy basket, with Broadcom not far behind. The CPU basket is only a hold: much of its upside was priced in during Intel and AMD's run. x.comÂ
Semiconductors look relatively cheap against the S&P 500, while their earnings are growing much faster, barring an EPS reset. The selloff looks overdone, though that does not mean it reverses tomorrow. x.comÂ
Semiconductors may face deflationary telco-equipment economics as chip throughput improves and compute deployment eases. Nvidia's tokens per chip rise dramatically each year; three or four deflationary forces could converge. LLMs sell tokens as carriers sold minutes, leaving consumers the main beneficiaries after penetration. If that analogy holds, few bulls would like either business. App developers may benefit after the customer ramp, though LLM providers could build their own. x.com x.com … Show more
Semiconductor earnings have outpaced prices, making the selloff look more like forced positioning than a broken growth case. Since January 2025, the SOX rose about 114% while reconstructed forward earnings rose about 198%; the estimate is approximate. Hedge funds sold global tech at a greater-than-three-standard-deviation pace in October 5-16, a pattern seen near earlier lows, though another sharp flush could come before a reversal. x.comÂ
Semiconductor fundamentals have improved as SpaceX and Meta say spending will rise further, while rates have come down. Earlier caution rested on fears that megacaps could not sustain spending and rising rates would slow AI investment; neither worry has played out. Today's selling feels more like stops being hit and investors giving up. x.com x.comÂ
Semiconductors aren't bottoming, because a major player who lost tens of billions just raised about a billion to pile into semiconductor calls, as revealed via @zerohedge. Ken Griffin will most likely once again take money from Leopold Aschenbrenner. x.comÂ
Semiconductor earnings will be good, supporting a likely run into Q3 results. The group looks oversold, and the Anthropic/CoreWeave news is noise. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ