Brazilian equities look uninvestable as the political shift toward socialism threatens to make an already poor inflation-adjusted long-term bet worse. The Brazil ETF's sharp decline after the political outcome illustrates the concern, though individual winners remain possible. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Lula's fourth mandate has dealt Brazilian equities a political shock, with a risk of deeper losses after the initial selloff. EWZ fell about 18% overnight and 27% by morning; the intraday recovery does not settle what comes next, given the much deeper falls after Argentina's 2019 primary-election shock. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Brazilian equities look set to climb after Bolsonaro's son defeated President Lula, sparking expectations of pro-capital, pro-business policy. The Brazil ETF jumped 13% in a day, confirming on the weekly chart a breakout from a large wedge dating to 2010, then a retest and second leg higher. Don't chase it; wait for a technical pullback to enter. x.com 

Socialist politics are a poor backdrop for Brazilian equities. A 23% drop in EWZ is not a compelling long case when it merely returns prices to where they stood before the first election. x.com 

Crowded Brazil and EWZ longs are exposed after Lula's surprise election win, as reported by negligible_cap. MercadoLibre and many others are going to get absolutely nuked tomorrow. x.com 

Brazilian equities remain a strong opportunity against other global emerging markets because fiscal easing, rate cuts and Brazil's critical-minerals edge survive election results. Brazil is down only 6% for the month after an earlier rally and remains near its four-month range. Lula's terms have been net positive for EWZ; this is a bet on Brazil's outlook, not on who wins the presidency. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Brazilian equities could take months to absorb exits by funds unwilling to hold stocks under Lula, despite single-digit P/Es. The Bovespa looks to be putting in a 3.5-year cycle peak, and EWZ looks lower over the next few weeks or months. After a failed breakout, EWZ likely returns to the bottom of its consolidation near $26 weekly demand, though a short-term bounce may come first. x.com 

Brazil's political developments have driven a selloff that makes MercadoLibre a dip opportunity. MELI is down 11% amid the market's reaction. x.com 

Political fear after Lula election wins is a buying opportunity in Brazilian stocks, including EWZ, MercadoLibre and Nu Holdings. In USD, the table shows 12-month gains of 115% after 2002, 76% after 2006 and 18.5% after 2022, though shorter-term returns varied. x.com 

Brazil's political developments have driven a selloff that makes Nu Holdings a dip opportunity. NU is down 19% amid the market's reaction. x.com