Alex A.C.
Value/GARP Investor, Semiconductor & Financial Analysis, Electronics MEng
Celestica's demand for AI hardware and the components connecting it looks strong enough to support an almost doubling in its 2027 guidance figures. The company guides to $40 billion of revenue and $21.50 of adjusted EPS for 2027; Wall Street's consensus price target implies nearly 100% upside. Per @firesidealpha, Celestica's M. Chawla says customers are awarding 2028 programs on silicon not yet developed, with conversations extending into 2029 and 2030. x.com x.comÂ
Celestica's 2027 revenue guide signals actual hyperscaler hardware orders, not speculative AI spending. As a contract manufacturer, it cannot plan to nearly double revenue to $40 billion without customer demand forecasts; it says 2028 forecasts are higher still. Inventories rose over $2.3 billion this year as materials were staged for the ramp, with customers funding working capital through payment terms. x.comÂ
Celestica's conservative guidance and program pipeline leave room for further revenue upside. Its 2027 outlook is $40B, 90% above the $21B 2026 outlook, which has risen four times; a beat looks possible. StockedgeN cites 60-70 new programs, and only a few need to convert to matter at Celestica's scale. Complex racks force it up the value chain. At about 15x next-twelve-month earnings, the stock looks cheap, though a dip may be a better entry. Organic growth takes priority over buybacks. x.com … Show more
Celestica's run-up prices in pricing power it does not have. It is a service-centric, labor-intensive business with very thin gross and operating margins, which limits how much operating leverage it can deliver. Its share sale looks like a way to take advantage of FOMO and place the funding burden on equity investors rather than the balance sheet. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Celestica's strong quarter and above-estimate 2026 revenue guide make its stock deserve to be much higher. Revenue was $5.83B versus $5.46B expected, adjusted EPS $3.30 versus $2.97, and 2026 revenue guidance $21B versus $20.61B. The stock is going to $400, though it might take time. Its investment-grade customers make heavy customer concentration less concerning. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Celestica's Q3 beat and first 2027 guidance make its growth look underpriced. Revenue rose 83% and EPS 109%; management raised 2026 revenue guidance to $21B and put 2027 revenue at $40B-plus and EPS at $21.50, implying about 90% and 85% growth. At roughly 12x 2027 EPS after hours, shares are probably 50% undervalued; initial targets may have upside, with revenue growth potentially reaching 100%. At $34.50 of 2028 EPS and 24x earnings, shares would be worth $828. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Celestica's valuation is too high if its expected growth over the next three years does not materialize. Contract electronics manufacturers usually trade at low-teens earnings multiples in normal times and single digits in bear markets, as Jabil shows. A reply argues it trades at 36x 2026 earnings on 50% growth and would be under 25x 2027 earnings, but that rests on the growth arriving. x.comÂ
Celestica's stronger hyperscaler switch and rack outlook points to more demand for Credo's AECs in the same buildout. Celestica beat its Q3 guide, raised FY26 and expects accelerating 2027 growth; that read-through suggests a strong Credo December print, a second-half FY27 inflection and likely a huge guide. x.comÂ
Celestica's cheap TPU exposure offers upside, but its low margins and smaller moat than Vicor's make it a trade rather than a large core holding. It will probably reach $400-$500 over time; $400 next year looks likely. An attached analyst note expects scrutiny of a cut in 2026 free-cash-flow guidance from $600M to $460M due mainly to working capital; it warns that 2027 free cash flow could turn negative if working-capital investment stays high alongside $1.5B-$2B of capex. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Celestica looks unusually inexpensive relative to its growth. Its enterprise value is 0.99 times next-twelve-month revenue against 58.7% revenue growth, yielding a 0.0168 growth-adjusted revenue multiple; few companies compare better. Its 14.7 times forward earnings against 69.8% earnings growth gives a 0.21 PEG, below the conventional 1.0 fair-value heuristic. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Celestica has quietly become an AI-infrastructure powerhouse, with its contract manufacturing of hyperscaler hardware driving rapid growth. From Q2 FY25 to Q2 FY26, revenue rose 62% to $4,699M, operating earnings 68% to $458M and net earnings 75% to $369M, while EPS climbed from $1.83 to $3.21. x.comÂ
