Semiconductor trade faces a capex growth ceiling even if AI delivers what bulls expect. Spending cannot compound at 70-100% a year indefinitely, and compute per dollar roughly doubles every two years, so the same budget buys more capacity later. Today's chip valuations also demand years of 20% AI earnings growth beyond 2028: roughly 10.9 extra years for AMD, 8.9 for ASML, 7 for Marvell and 6.4 for TSMC, versus 1.6 for Broadcom and 0.8 for Nvidia; Micron needs none under the chart's assumptions. … Show more

AI skepticism leaves Nvidia, Broadcom and Micron looking cheap on forward earnings. Their forward P/E ratios are 14, 18 and 5, respectively; the market may eventually stop doubting AI. x.com 

Even AI spending to protect existing earnings rather than drive growth is incredibly bullish for semiconductor chipmakers. Inflectionecon raised that defensive-spending concern; chip stocks are getting hit hardest despite it, though fighting the price action is difficult. x.com 

Bubble fears and cascading margin calls, not deteriorating AI demand, explain the selloff in AI stocks. Massive amounts of cash keep coming into hyperscalers and semiconductors each quarter as demand for intelligence grows; semiconductors and neoclouds, including SpaceX, have been hit especially hard. October seasonality and midterm uncertainty added volatility, while profitability and growth make this one of the cheapest markets ever. x.com  x.com 

Semiconductor and AI infrastructure stocks are vulnerable because expectations got too hot and the sector is priced for perfection, not because AI is dead. Even Samsung's record profit failed to calm doubts about how sustainable the AI chip boom is, sending names like Western Digital, Lam Research, Applied Materials and Micron down 5-7% pre-market, as strong earnings became a sell-the-news event. x.com 

Semiconductors could stay undersupplied for a long time as more capable AI per dollar creates more uses and drives compute demand. Micron and NVIDIA trade at low forward P/Es because investors fear peak cyclical earnings, yet current earnings show no slowdown. Shortages may worsen as AI adoption spreads, though the industry could remain cyclical; a reversal of the forced rollover trade is hoped for, not assured. x.com  x.com  x.com 

AI semiconductor stocks are falling because valuations priced in too much growth beyond 2026-27, not because fundamentals are worsening. With the sector ETF up more than 100% year to date at one point, Q2 earnings couldn't meet those expectations, and a crowded trade is deleveraging as everyone races for the same exit. Fundamentals are likely improving, so as positioning and valuation reset the trade can continue, but selectively. x.com 

Aehr Test Systems stands to benefit because testing is a bottleneck to scaling AI chips. Testing demand is about to surge. Investors did not question its price-to-sales ratio at 120, despite the current P/S objection. x.com  x.com 

Some semiconductor stocks have returned to reasonable valuations as fundamentals improve, making recent declines buying opportunities. Many had traded at two to three times their median valuations; the correction brought some back toward normal, while sustained AI spending should benefit suppliers for years. x.com 

Marvell's extremely high expectations make its valuation hard to justify amid customer concentration, custom-silicon competition and acquisition risks. It benefits from AI infrastructure spending, but those risks are making investors question what it is worth. x.com