Marvell's willingness to heavily dilute its shareholders suggests a takeover would probably be an exceptionally good deal for Lumentum. Marvell must have a strong reason to pursue the rumored purchase so aggressively; Lumentum should accept if offered such a deal. x.com 

Lumentum's optics business is too valuable to sell for less than $2,000 a share, making a rumored Marvell takeover implausible. Lumentum is worth at least $2,000 a share now; a $120 billion purchase would consume about 60% of Marvell's roughly $200 billion market value, while a fair price would be closer to $160 billion in this view. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Lumentum is a great business, but at $954 its risk/reward is not attractive. Applying 30x to fiscal 2028 non-GAAP EPS of $40 gives a 2027 price target of $1,200, about 26% upside, or roughly 15% after adjusting for execution, financial, technology and supply risks. Reaching it needs on-time manufacturing ramps, sustained pricing power and cash flow without excessive dilution. Lost pricing power plus slipping OCS or laser ramps would break the thesis; a significant dip would offer a better entry. … Show more

Lumentum's 109% year-on-year growth and sold-out capacity through 2029 make selling its AI optics exposure questionable. Bloomberg reported Marvell is in advanced talks to buy it; the appeal depends on the price, especially when holders of an $80 billion Lumentum would become holders of a $320 billion-plus Marvell growing 37%. x.com 

A full scale-up co-packaged optics ramp could perhaps lift Lumentum 2-3x over 3-4 years. Lumentum is not worth anywhere near $1 trillion. x.com 

Co-packaged optics standards could make finished transceiver modules smaller and more interchangeable as chip designers build optical engines inside their packages. That is another reason to avoid Lumentum, Coherent and Applied Optoelectronics and prefer Soitec. Lumentum and Coherent now earn a lot from finished modules, leaving them exposed if the architecture changes. x.com 

Owning Lumentum's laser fab could secure Marvell's FY28 supply and hedge its DSP franchise as optical links shift to CPO. The rumored deal's strategy makes sense, but short-term pain is likely: at a 30% premium, roughly $17.5B in new debt and the rest in stock, rough math puts EPS dilution near 15%. It turns accretive only if Lumentum outgrows Marvell at today's guided rates for five or six more quarters, which looks achievable while the laser shortage lasts. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Marvell's potential Lumentum acquisition may fail to increase per-share value because the added profits may not cover dilution and financing costs. A simplified calculation using reported market values implies roughly 38%-45% more shares, requiring about 45% more combined net profit to preserve EPS; debt would add interest and repayment pressure. If the price already reflects future growth, a control premium and possible customer concerns add risk. x.com 

The photonics-as-AI-bottleneck claim has faded, leaving Lumentum facing more pain before the theme recovers. A large December options node sits at $600; the stock bot targets downside at $650 and $595, with $581 a possible liquidity sweep where smart money would buy instead of rushing in at $650 or $630. Most photonics companies will likely never come back. x.com 

Marvell risks paying a peak-scarcity price for Lumentum if optical supply catches up by 2028-30. The proposed ~$99B deal values Lumentum at roughly 20x guided annualized revenue and 58x estimated after-tax operating income, while Lumentum, Coherent and Chinese suppliers are adding laser capacity. The DSP-and-laser combination has strategic logic, but durable scarcity economics and Nvidia's response remain uncertain. x.com