Marvell risks paying a peak-scarcity price for Lumentum if optical supply catches up by 2028-30. The proposed ~$99B deal values Lumentum at roughly 20x guided annualized revenue and 58x estimated after-tax operating income, while Lumentum, Coherent and Chinese suppliers are adding laser capacity. The DSP-and-laser combination has strategic logic, but durable scarcity economics and Nvidia's response remain uncertain. x.com 

Rising 1.6T switching demand favors optical suppliers, though their execution risks vary. Bank of America says the market could grow ~101% annually through 2030. Marvell's leading DSPs and Lumentum's supply-short 200G EML lasers are lowest risk; Applied Optoelectronics' capacity expansion and Fabrinet's customer concentration make them medium risk. Aeluma remains pre-commercial, while Lightwave Logic's polymer modulators are a high-risk moonshot despite its TSM partnership. x.com 

Applied Optoelectronics, Lumentum and Coherent face share losses at US hyperscalers to Innolight. Channel checks favor Innolight gaining share in Q2 2026, at the expense of those three. Per @poezhao0605, a $7B Hong Kong IPO, the largest in years and upsized from $5B on strong demand, has cleared its listing hearing. x.com 

AI bandwidth demand still favors Coherent and Lumentum, but tight customer financing can delay orders and lasting valuations need durable profits. A model provider losing share need not reduce total bandwidth use. Coherent could beat and raise guidance; Lumentum may only meet estimates this quarter, improving next quarter. If margins partly reflect scarce indium phosphide, added supply will test whether upgrades, volume and cost gains sustain earnings. These earnings calls remain forecasts. … Show more

Lumentum stands to gain as the shift from copper to light inside AI data centers accelerates. Co-packaged optics is now in mass production, per TrendForce, with Nvidia shipping Spectrum-X CPO switches. Near-packaged optics is catching on fast; Lumentum CEO Michael Hurlston says its demand looks bigger than CPO's and came sooner, now late 2027 or early 2028. He sees about $40 a share of fiscal 2028 earnings power, above Street estimates, with none of CPO or NPO in the numbers yet. x.com 

Lumentum is a great business, but at $954 its risk/reward is not attractive. Applying 30x to fiscal 2028 non-GAAP EPS of $40 gives a 2027 price target of $1,200, about 26% upside, or roughly 15% after adjusting for execution, financial, technology and supply risks. Reaching it needs on-time manufacturing ramps, sustained pricing power and cash flow without excessive dilution. Lost pricing power plus slipping OCS or laser ramps would break the thesis; a significant dip would offer a better entry. … Show more

Coherent's 6-inch substrate access, yields and margin concerns look mostly like timing issues in the optical buildout. Coherent is now one of the preferred ways to gain exposure and should participate meaningfully, despite those constraints. x.com 

Photonics suppliers ride the same curves Marvell just laid out through 2030. Marvell targets $70-90B of fiscal 2031 revenue from $8.2B last year, with a TAM 4x its last investor day and interconnect the biggest segment at about $37.5B. Supply is tight: Lumentum's CEO says it can meet only 30% of customer demand next year, and Coherent is booked through 2027. @AsymmetricBets_ applied Marvell's model to Lumentum, Coherent, Applied Optoelectronics, Ciena, Tower Semiconductor and Astera Labs. x.com 

Lumentum and Coherent face a threat from microLED optics, which could replace laser optics with 20x less power and no temperature sensitivity by late 2027. The use case is short-reach, high-volume links under 30 meters. The copper versus optics debate is a distraction, since every AI cluster needs both and Credo now does both while Applied Optoelectronics handles long-haul; the bigger question is what microLED does to laser makers. x.com  x.com 

Lumentum, Coherent and Applied Optoelectronics remain buys amid AI optics demand: Lumentum's CEO said its AI optical parts are completely sold out through early 2029. x.com