Co-packaged optics standards could make finished transceiver modules smaller and more interchangeable as chip designers build optical engines inside their packages. That is another reason to avoid Lumentum, Coherent and Applied Optoelectronics and prefer Soitec. Lumentum and Coherent now earn a lot from finished modules, leaving them exposed if the architecture changes. x.com 

Marvell risks paying a peak-scarcity price for Lumentum if optical supply catches up by 2028-30. The proposed ~$99B deal values Lumentum at roughly 20x guided annualized revenue and 58x estimated after-tax operating income, while Lumentum, Coherent and Chinese suppliers are adding laser capacity. The DSP-and-laser combination has strategic logic, but durable scarcity economics and Nvidia's response remain uncertain. x.com 

AI bandwidth demand still favors Coherent and Lumentum, but tight customer financing can delay orders and lasting valuations need durable profits. A model provider losing share need not reduce total bandwidth use. Coherent could beat and raise guidance; Lumentum may only meet estimates this quarter, improving next quarter. If margins partly reflect scarce indium phosphide, added supply will test whether upgrades, volume and cost gains sustain earnings. These earnings calls remain forecasts. … Show more

Applied Optoelectronics has a better chance than Coherent of delivering a 300-400 mW laser with tolerable RIN and linewidth. Its transceiver capacity ramp is also larger and is not gated by Sumitomo's 6-inch InP wafers. Long AAOI against short COHR is an unnecessarily dangerous pair trade idea. x.com 

Lumentum and Coherent face a threat from microLED optics, which could replace laser optics with 20x less power and no temperature sensitivity by late 2027. The use case is short-reach, high-volume links under 30 meters. The copper versus optics debate is a distraction, since every AI cluster needs both and Credo now does both while Applied Optoelectronics handles long-haul; the bigger question is what microLED does to laser makers. x.com  x.com 

Optics and photonics should be among AI's biggest winners as faster GPU networks need optical connections that suppliers cannot expand quickly enough. Lumentum says some components are sold out through early 2029; Sivers is investing $30M to target more than 100M lasers a year, with operations expected in Q4 2027. Potential US restrictions on Chinese transceivers could reshape supply in 2027. Applied Optoelectronics and Sivers are the favorites. x.com  x.com 

VCSEL scale-up optics may spread revenue across more suppliers because they lack the fundamental bottlenecks of InP lasers. Coherent looks well positioned, but the VCSEL opportunity may still be shared more widely; Lumentum is also betting on VCSELs for scale-up. x.com 

Applied Optoelectronics is in the right place at the right time but isn't a high-quality business; it mainly serves as spillover capacity when Lumentum, Coherent and Marvell can't meet demand, so why own it over Marvell? Management also draws terrible Glassdoor reviews, 1.7 of 5 stars, 1% CEO approval and 7% recommending it across 124 reviews, pointing to high turnover and operating risk. The tone of its earnings call was also off-putting. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Tighter Lumentum laser allocations would strengthen Coherent's pricing power if Marvell's rumored acquisition leads it to prioritize Nvidia and its own modules. Other buyers would face tighter supply, and hyperscalers would push harder to second-source lasers from Coherent. x.com 

The LYTE ETF offers pure-play exposure to global photonics and optics leaders, with Coherent and Lumentum as its top holdings. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has said the world needs substantially more silicon photonics capacity than it has today, explaining Nvidia's $4B investment in Lumentum and Coherent. x.com  x.com