Nintendo's low-cost Ocarina of Time remake can draw buyers to Switch 2 and its lifetime software value. Reservations for the New York midnight launch have sold out; the remake's development cost is estimated at $40-80 million versus more than $1 billion for GTA 6, and Nintendo keeps the platform fee. x.com 

Zelda: Ocarina of Time preorders suggest Nintendo has another Switch 2 seller despite competition from GTA VI. Its listing shows 100K+ bought in the past month; four Switch 2 games already have 3M+ sales, with a fifth on its way. Hardware sales have been high without the heavy hitters. Pokémon and likely a 3D Mario follow next year, and Pokémon and Zelda fans may have little overlap. x.com  x.com 

Nintendo's Switch 2 is being squeezed by memory costs from the AI data center boom. The US price rises from $449.99 to $499.99 in September, with similar hikes in Canada and Europe, and Nintendo expects 16.5 million unit sales this year versus 19.9 million last year; some analysts think memory prices won't cool until 2028. Even allowing for Nintendo's usual sandbagging, the stock is not screamingly cheap or asymmetric. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Nintendo is an exceptional company with irreplaceable IP and plenty of cash, so the stock near 2.5-year lows is not a weed to cut. As Peter Lynch showed with Taco Bell, it is very hard to go bankrupt without debt. The Switch 2 was a home run after eight years, Mario, Zelda and Pokemon games cannot be played on PlayStation, and a Zelda release for PS5 could unlock billions. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Take-Two looks too cheap with GTA 6 on the horizon. There seems to be massive pent-up demand not just for GTA but for any reasonably good AAA game, and little real competition is left in that segment. x.com 

Nintendo looks attractive at $14 as the Apple of gaming. It makes great, easy-to-use, family-friendly hardware and takes a platform fee on games and apps sold on it. Nintendo Switch Online at $50 a year brings in $1.7 billion of subscription revenue. Pokemon Pokopia, just released, is an evergreen title, and a new Mario movie arrives April 1. x.com  x.com 

Nintendo and Sony sold off because memory prices rose, but consoles and video games are entire industries and identities, and gamers have the highest willingness to pay for tech of any consumers. They spend $3k on lag reduction and big screens and $1k on vibrating chairs. x.com 

Take-Two's GTA 6 excitement is already priced in, and without a marketplace or online ecosystem at launch, its larger commerce-platform thesis will take much longer to develop. The weekly structure broke and the stock has fallen about 25%, with a volume gap between $200 and $160; it should continue lower toward the monthly institutional buy zone, where $160-$170 offers a much better entry. Risk/reward doesn't justify a short here. x.com 

Nintendo sits on the most valuable IP catalogue in entertainment and still looks underpriced relative to Disney. The Super Mario Galaxy Movie's $372.5 million global opening weekend, the biggest of the year so far, shows that huge box office for video game IP films is the new normal. x.com 

Take-Two could be a sell-the-rumor, buy-the-news setup ahead of GTA 6's November 19 release, which makes it worth a shot. The stock is down 20% from all-time highs set a couple of months ago, likely on online leaks, and sits at its February 2021 peak, nearly six years of going back and forth. x.com