Take-Two looks too cheap with GTA 6 on the horizon. There seems to be massive pent-up demand not just for GTA but for any reasonably good AAA game, and little real competition is left in that segment. x.com
Sigma Zero Capital
Founder of Sigma Zero Capital, Thematic Trader
GTA 6 will not be delayed, making Take-Two a buy. x.com
GTA VI has tons of optionality to build a real in-game economy, which should make it a monster cash printer for Take-Two. x.com x.com
Take-Two's GTA 6 excitement is already priced in, and without a marketplace or online ecosystem at launch, its larger commerce-platform thesis will take much longer to develop. The weekly structure broke and the stock has fallen about 25%, with a volume gap between $200 and $160; it should continue lower toward the monthly institutional buy zone, where $160-$170 offers a much better entry. Risk/reward doesn't justify a short here. x.com
Take-Two is down more than 25% from its all-time highs with GTA VI coming out in two months. x.com
Take-Two is a coiled spring waiting for GTA VI to print billions, so this quarter barely matters. Revenue rose just 2% to $1.53B while development costs and royalties jumped from $30M to $135M, cutting gross profit 7% and turning a $22M operating profit into a $36M loss; EPS fell from −$0.07 to −$0.18. Patience is required until the game launches. x.com
Take-Two's next rerating depends on details of its platform monetization bull case, which the market has not yet seen. @Maksim_P_M argues demand for GTA VI is strong and the upside lies in turning it into a platform through GTA+ and microtransactions, but the market is signaling that this does not matter yet. CEO Strauss Zelnick's non-deal roadshow this month aims to support the stock, but it is unclear what flips bears without data he has no incentive to give. x.com
Take-Two looks like a screaming opportunity at these levels, and with GTA 6 around the corner the stock should pop. x.com
Take-Two could be a sell-the-rumor, buy-the-news setup ahead of GTA 6's November 19 release, which makes it worth a shot. The stock is down 20% from all-time highs set a couple of months ago, likely on online leaks, and sits at its February 2021 peak, nearly six years of going back and forth. x.com
Take-Two is heading lower because it priced Grand Theft Auto VI too low and will launch it without GTA Online, leaving a revenue air pocket ahead. Preorders start June 25 at $79.99 standard and $99.99 ultimate, when $100 up front would have been the right call. @KakashiCapital_ argues the $80 price is bullish and add-ons will follow, but investors are not prepared for the online revenue gap. x.com x.com x.com
Take-Two is genuinely interesting because GTA VI hype keeps building: creators were even more excited after its 25-minute trailer. As @amitisinvesting notes, streamer clips drew millions of views with nearly all comments expecting a huge game, suggesting growth the Street has not priced in, especially in 2028 EPS estimates. Conviction still falls short of buying. x.com x.com