Frank Curzio
Founder & CEO of Curzio Research, Wall Street Unplugged Host
Take-Two is down more than 25% from its all-time highs with GTA VI coming out in two months. x.comÂ
Take-Two is a bullish, hero-or-zero bet on GTA VI. x.comÂ
Take-Two's GTA 6 excitement is already priced in, and without a marketplace or online ecosystem at launch, its larger commerce-platform thesis will take much longer to develop. The weekly structure broke and the stock has fallen about 25%, with a volume gap between $200 and $160; it should continue lower toward the monthly institutional buy zone, where $160-$170 offers a much better entry. Risk/reward doesn't justify a short here. x.comÂ
Take-Two could be a sell-the-rumor, buy-the-news setup ahead of GTA 6's November 19 release, which makes it worth a shot. The stock is down 20% from all-time highs set a couple of months ago, likely on online leaks, and sits at its February 2021 peak, nearly six years of going back and forth. x.comÂ
GTA VI has tons of optionality to build a real in-game economy, which should make it a monster cash printer for Take-Two. x.com x.comÂ
Take-Two could dip below 200 one more time before the GTA 6 release. Stocks facing binary events like this launch tend to make everyone panic right up until the last moment. x.comÂ
GTA 6 will not be delayed, making Take-Two a buy. x.comÂ
Take-Two looks too cheap with GTA 6 on the horizon. There seems to be massive pent-up demand not just for GTA but for any reasonably good AAA game, and little real competition is left in that segment. x.comÂ
Take-Two's next rerating depends on details of its platform monetization bull case, which the market has not yet seen. @Maksim_P_M argues demand for GTA VI is strong and the upside lies in turning it into a platform through GTA+ and microtransactions, but the market is signaling that this does not matter yet. CEO Strauss Zelnick's non-deal roadshow this month aims to support the stock, but it is unclear what flips bears without data he has no incentive to give. x.comÂ
Take-Two Interactive is positioned for what could be the biggest entertainment launch ever with GTA 6 on November 19, 2026. About $1.5 billion went into development, 30 million-plus launch sales are expected and analysts project nearly $3 billion of revenue within 24 hours. GTA 5 made $800M in its first day, sold over 220 million copies and still sells a decade later. Since GTA 5's launch, Take-Two shares are up 718% versus 160% for the S&P 500. x.comÂ