Zhipu AI is a Chinese AI arbitrage, shipping models near frontier Western performance at a fraction of the valuation. Its GLM-5.1 scored 45.3 on a coding benchmark versus 47.9 for Claude Opus 4.6, a 2.6-point gap far smaller than the valuation gap. Zhipu is up 357% since its January IPO, double MiniMax's return, yet both trade at about $40B. x.com 

China's entry into chip design and fabrication is a structural change: stop fading China as Western AI chip and cloud leaders get steeply discounted. China dominates nearly every manufacturing category; with multi-patterning its DUV tools perform near newer nodes and could scale massively or reach EUV. Chinese open models co-designed for Chinese chips could pull sovereignty-minded countries onto its tech stack. As Ford fared after China joined the WTO, so may Nvidia, ASML, TSMC and AWS by 2050. … Show more

Zhipu AI's stock is unattractive because the Chinese AI model space is simply too competitive to be an appealing investment. Its company vision still deserves respect, and its current valuation is not a bubble. x.com 

Alibaba and Baidu stand to benefit because China will not slow its AI development even if the US slows its own. x.com 

MiniMax should draw renewed attention because it will likely release another model soon. Chinese AI labs are probably quite close to each other in progress, yet their valuations are far apart, so attention should rotate back to MiniMax sooner or later. It is also further down the dilution path than Zhipu. x.com 

Zhipu and MiniMax need money, trading at 500-1,000x price to sales, and that could eventually push Chinese AI labs toward closed source. They could privately supply their latest models to Microsoft Azure and neoclouds such as Together, Venice and OpenRouter, which would fine-tune or serve them and share revenue while the weights stay private. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Alibaba is an elegant hedge against US AI policy missteps, whether a data-center moratorium or a proposal to pause AI development. In that scenario, the base case is Alibaba holding the top-ranked AI models for a considerable period, soaking up attention on AI breakthroughs and drawing in global investors. x.com 

Alibaba looks like a decent buy as its narrative improves after Chinese AI model releases. Per Bloomberg, relayed by @StockMKTNewz, Alibaba launched a preview of its flagship Qwen3.8 Max, which it describes as comparable to leading frontier models and second only to Anthropic's Fable 5. x.com  x.com 

Zhipu (Knowledge Atlas) is already valued at nutty levels. At HK$2,094, buying it on $1B of ARR is like paying $6T for Anthropic on $50B of ARR. Its GLM models are genuinely impressive, but that valuation comes before factoring in the headaches of owning Chinese stocks. x.com 

ACM Research is the cleanest second-derivative play on AI capex, and Kimi's rise makes it more bullish. A China that is frontier-competitive in models but cannot buy Nvidia's best chips must build its own compute, HBM and packaging, and that spend lands on ACM Shanghai, its STAR-listed operating company, where new orders rose 65% year over year in Q1. Its new Lingang flagship site has about $3B of annual output capacity as it ramps. x.com  x.com  x.com