Alibaba and Baidu are a no-brainer buy because Chinese AI stocks trade at very low valuations while China is determined to race the US in AI. x.com 

Alibaba raising capital for AI after a strong quarter is a buying opportunity, especially with CEO Eddie Wu buying shares right after the raise. In June, heavy buybacks near $94.80 preceded a rally to $132. Stanley Druckenmiller starting a Baidu position, despite saying he would not invest in China under Xi, signals a bet on Chinese AI and cloud. Chinese names are cheap and underappreciated, with strong AI models, power access and robotics leadership, while the US faces data-center hurdles. … Show more

Alibaba is tough to hold because it is splitting investment between e-commerce and AI, creating massive execution risk. AI is so capex-hungry that, as Western examples show, Alibaba cannot spread spending and still reach comparable results. The market sees China e-commerce spending, including the quick-commerce race, as having no ROI, and is right. Replies argue Alibaba has no choice; it might still make it, but the risk is that its AI push slows. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Alibaba is a contrarian trade because accelerating demand for relatively cheaper compute is very underappreciated, and China's cloud market is still in its infancy versus the US. Alibaba is a consensus short as upside from closed-source AI looks illusory. x.com  x.com 

Baidu looks ready for a second leg higher as President Trump meets President Xi this week. It has built a five-year base, holds $43B of cash, grew AI Cloud 34% year over year and has a Kunlunxin AI chip spin-off coming. x.com 

Alibaba's full AI stack is not yet working economically: it loses $4 for every $1 of revenue, and that is the whole thesis risk. AI Labs lost RMB13.9B, cloud profit covers only 41% of that hole, and commerce is still funding the entire AI build. The cloud business works; the full AI stack does not yet. x.com 

Alibaba offers opportunity at $123 as a front-runner in China's AI buildout, particularly if its AI spending shows real returns and it proves it can compete with the US. Over $56 billion of AI and cloud investment over three years has made current free cash flow negative, like US hyperscalers. Cloud growth is expected near 45%, AI products are already 30% of external cloud revenue, and it holds $38 billion of net cash. Cloud growth, capex and guidance will drive the earnings reaction. x.com 

Alibaba is an elegant hedge against US AI policy missteps, whether a data-center moratorium or a proposal to pause AI development. In that scenario, the base case is Alibaba holding the top-ranked AI models for a considerable period, soaking up attention on AI breakthroughs and drawing in global investors. x.com 

Alibaba's HK$80 billion share sale looks like a grab-the-money-and-run move before the AI party ends, with base rates set to go ballistic as in 1972-1973. @AKL_019 notes the HK$112.70 price is 39.5% below the 52-week high, and asks why it didn't raise money in late 2025 or early 2026. @stevehou notes Alibaba is selling stock for AI without new highs or market validation of its AI efforts. In capital markets, the stupid but practical reason is usually the right one, as with SpaceX's fundraising. … Show more

China reportedly restricted overseas travel for key AI talent at Alibaba and DeepSeek, a sign Beijing sees them as its two most strategic AI assets, and Alibaba could deliver surprises over the next couple of months. US tech has outperformed, but the bad news looks baked in, and any Chinese surprise could send Alibaba to the stratosphere. x.com  x.com